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The economic impact of a shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an application of FUND

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Author Info

  • P. Michael Link
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

The integrated assessment model FUND 2.8n is applied in an analysis of the overall economic consequences in a scenario of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Monetized market and non-market impacts of changes in environmental conditions following a THC collapse are determined for 207 individual countries. Eight different response patterns can be identified. The dominant pattern is that a THC shutdown has an offsetting effect on the underlying warming trend. Depending on whether the impacts of warming are initially beneficial or detrimental, the economic effects of a THC collapse show distinct regional variability. Key economic sectors affected in a THC shutdown scenario are water resources and energy consumption, as well as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases among health impacts. The maximum, national impact of a collapse of the THC turns out to be of the magnitude of a few per cent of GDP, but the global impact is much smaller. Considering the low probability of occurrence, a THC shutdown does not call for drastic action at present.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/Link_Working_Paper_FNU-103.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-103.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision: May 2006
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:103

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Keywords: Fisheries; climate change;

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  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2005. "Coastal landscape and the hedonic price of accommodation," Working Papers FNU-91, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2005.
  2. Brian S. Fisher & Guy Jakeman & Hom M. Pant & Malte Schwoon & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Chimp: A Simple Population Model For Use In Integrated Assessment Of Global Environmental Change," Working Papers FNU-69, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
  3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2004. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers 2004.21, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Technology Protocols For Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-14, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002.
  5. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Arjen Y. Hoekstra & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Restricted Water Supply: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-93, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2006.
  6. Robert J. Nicholls & Richard S.J. Tol & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2005. "Global Estimates Of The Impact Of A Collapse Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-78, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
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Cited by:
  1. Dritan Osmani, . "A note on optimal transfer schemes, stable coalition for environmental protection and joint maximization assumption," Working Papers FNU-176, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.

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