The economic impact of a shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an application of FUND
AbstractThe integrated assessment model FUND 2.8n is applied in an analysis of the overall economic consequences in a scenario of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Monetized market and non-market impacts of changes in environmental conditions following a THC collapse are determined for 207 individual countries. Eight different response patterns can be identified. The dominant pattern is that a THC shutdown has an offsetting effect on the underlying warming trend. Depending on whether the impacts of warming are initially beneficial or detrimental, the economic effects of a THC collapse show distinct regional variability. Key economic sectors affected in a THC shutdown scenario are water resources and energy consumption, as well as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases among health impacts. The maximum, national impact of a collapse of the THC turns out to be of the magnitude of a few per cent of GDP, but the global impact is much smaller. Considering the low probability of occurrence, a THC shutdown does not call for drastic action at present.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-103.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision: May 2006
Fisheries; climate change;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2007-03-17 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2007-03-17 (Environmental Economics)
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