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The economic impact of a shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an application of FUND

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Author Info

  • P. Michael Link
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    () (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

The integrated assessment model FUND 2.8n is applied in an analysis of the overall economic consequences in a scenario of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC). Monetized market and non-market impacts of changes in environmental conditions following a THC collapse are determined for 207 individual countries. Eight different response patterns can be identified. The dominant pattern is that a THC shutdown has an offsetting effect on the underlying warming trend. Depending on whether the impacts of warming are initially beneficial or detrimental, the economic effects of a THC collapse show distinct regional variability. Key economic sectors affected in a THC shutdown scenario are water resources and energy consumption, as well as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases among health impacts. The maximum, national impact of a collapse of the THC turns out to be of the magnitude of a few per cent of GDP, but the global impact is much smaller. Considering the low probability of occurrence, a THC shutdown does not call for drastic action at present.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/Link_Working_Paper_FNU-103.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-103.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision: May 2006
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:103

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Related research

Keywords: Fisheries; climate change;

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References

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  1. Robert J. Nicholls & Richard S.J. Tol & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2005. "Global Estimates Of The Impact Of A Collapse Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-78, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
  2. Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Technology Protocols For Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-14, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2002.
  3. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Arjen Y. Hoekstra & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Restricted Water Supply: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-93, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2006.
  4. Brian S. Fisher & Guy Jakeman & Hom M. Pant & Malte Schwoon & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Chimp: A Simple Population Model For Use In Integrated Assessment Of Global Environmental Change," Working Papers FNU-69, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
  5. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2002. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers FNU-15, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2003.
  6. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2005. "Coastal landscape and the hedonic price of accommodation," Working Papers FNU-91, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2005.
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Cited by:
  1. Dritan Osmani, . "A note on optimal transfer schemes, stable coalition for environmental protection and joint maximization assumption," Working Papers FNU-176, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.

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