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Chimp: A Simple Population Model For Use In Integrated Assessment Of Global Environmental Change

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Author Info

  • Brian S. Fisher
  • Guy Jakeman
  • Hom M. Pant
  • Malte Schwoon
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

We present the Canberra-Hamburg Integrated Model for Population (CHIMP), a new global population model for long-term projections. Distinguishing features of this model, compared to other model for secular population projections, are that (a) mortality, fertility, and migration are partly driven by per capita income; (b) large parts of the model have been estimated rather than calibrated; and (c) the model is in the public domain. Scenario experiments show similarities but also differences with other models. Similarities include rapid aging of the population and an eventual reversal of global population growth. The main difference is that CHIMP projects substantially higher populations, particularly in Africa, primarily because our data indicate a slower fertility decline than assumed elsewhere. Model runs show a strong interaction between population growth and economic growth, and a weak feedback of climate change on population growth.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/populationwp.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-69.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision: Jul 2005
Publication status: Published, Integrated Assessment Journal, 6 (3), 1-33
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:69

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Keywords: population model; long term projections; global change; integrated assessment;

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References

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  1. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
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Cited by:
  1. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The economic impact of a shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-103, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
  2. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios for the Usa," Working Papers 2006.117, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Christine Schleupner & P. Michael Link, 2007. "Potential impacts on important bird habitats in Eiderstedt (Schleswig-Holstein) caused by agricultural land use changes," Working Papers FNU-138, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2007.
  4. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Economic impacts on key Barents Sea fisheries arising from changes in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation," Working Papers FNU-104, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
  5. P. Michael Link & Christine Schleupner, 2007. "Agricultural land use changes in Eiderstedt," Working Papers FNU-137, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2007.

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