Global Estimates Of The Impact Of A Collapse Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: An Application Of Fund
AbstractThe threat of an abrupt and extreme rise in sea level is widely discussed in the media, but little understood in practise, including the likely impacts of such a rise. This paper explores for the first time the global impacts of extreme sea-level rise, triggered by a hypothetical collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). As the potential contributions remain uncertain, a wide range of scenarios are explored: WAIS contributions to sea-level rise of between 0.5m/century up to 5m/century. Together with other business-as-usual sea-level contributions, in the worst case this gives an approximately 6-m rise of global-mean sea level from 2030 to 2130. Global exposure to extreme sea-level rise is significant: roughly 400 million people (or about 8% of global population) are threatened by a 5-m rise in sea level, just based on 1995 data. The coastal module within the FUND model is tuned with global data on coastal zone characteristics concerning population, land areas and land use, and then used for impact analysis under the extreme sea-level rise scenarios. The model considers the interaction of (dry)land loss, wetland loss, protection costs and human displacement, assuming perfect adaptation based on cost-benefit analysis. Unlike earlier analyses, response costs are represented in a non-linear manner, including a sensitivity analysis based on response costs. It is found that much of the world’s coast would be abandoned given these extreme scenarios, although according to the global model, significant lengths of the world’s coast are worth defending even in the most extreme case. Hence, this suggests that actual population displacement would be a small fraction of the potential population displacement. This result is consistent with the present distribution of coastal population, which is heavily concentrated in specific areas. Hence a partial defence can protect most of the world’s coastal population. However, protection costs rise substantially diverting large amounts of investment from other sectors, and large areas of (dry)land and coastal wetlands are still predicted to be lost. While some observations of response to abrupt relative sea-level rise due to subsidence support the global model results, detailed case studies of the WAIS collapse in the Netherlands, Thames Estuary and the Rhone delta suggest a greater potential for abandonment than shown by the global model. This probably reflects a range of issues, including: (1) economic criteria such as the cost-benefit ratio is not the only factor which drives response decisions, with wider perceptions of risk driving the actual response; (2) the inefficiencies of adaptation in the real world, including indecision and competition for limited resources; and (3) the possible loss of confidence under the scenario of abrupt climate change. Collectively, these results illustrate an area where there are potential limits to adaptation, even when economic analysis suggests that adaptation will occur. The significant impacts found in the global model together with the potential for greater impacts as found in the detailed case studies shows that the response to abrupt sea-level rise is worthy of further research, including exploring the differing impact results by scale.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-78.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision: Jul 2005
Publication status: Forthcoming, Climatic Change
Abrupt climate change; sea-level rise; coastal impacts; adaptation; adaptation limits;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-31 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2007-03-31 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2007-03-31 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
- Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
- Richard Tol, 2007.
"The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND,"
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 741-753, June.
- Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Double Trade-Off Between Adaptation And Mitigation For Sea Level Rise: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-48, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004.
- Alexander A. Olsthoorn & Peter E. van der Werff & Laurens M. Bouwer & Dave Huitema, 2005. "Neo-Atlantis: Dutch Responses to Five Meter Sea Level Rise," Working Papers FNU-75, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
- P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
- Yohe Gary & Neumann James & Ameden Holly, 1995. "Assessing the Economic Cost of Greenhouse-Induced Sea Level Rise: Methods and Application in Support of a National Survey," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages S78-S97, November.
- Aldy, Joseph E. & Krupnick, Alan J. & Newell, Richard G. & Parry, Ian W.H. & Pizer, William A., 2009.
"Designing Climate Mitigation Policy,"
dp-08-16, Resources For the Future.
- P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The economic impact of a shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-103, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
- Whalley, John & Yuan, Yufei, 2009.
"Global financial structure and climate change,"
Journal of Financial Transformation,
Capco Institute, vol. 25, pages 161-168.
- P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "Economic impacts on key Barents Sea fisheries arising from changes in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation," Working Papers FNU-104, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
- Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Uwe Schneider).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.