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Abstract

The European Commission and a number of its Member States have adopted a stringent long-term target for climate policy, namely that the global mean temperature should not rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial times. This target is supported by rather thin arguments, based on inadequate methods, sloppy reasoning, and selective citation. In the scientific literature on “dangerous interference with the climate system”, most studies discuss either methodological issues, or carefully lay out the arguments for or against a particular target. These studies do not make specific recommendations, with the exception of cost-benefit analyses which argue for less stringent policy targets. However, there are also a few studies that recommend a target without the supporting argumentation. Overall, the 2°C target of the EU seems unfounded.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/twodegreeswp.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-92.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision: Sep 2005
Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 35 (1), 424-434
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:92

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Keywords: Climate policy; Article 2; dangerous interference; European Union;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2007-03-24 (All new papers)
• NEP-EEC-2007-03-24 (European Economics)
• NEP-ENE-2007-03-24 (Energy Economics)
• NEP-ENV-2007-03-24 (Environmental Economics)

References

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1. Beatriz Gaitan & Richard S.J. Tal & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2004. "The Hotelling's Rule Revisited in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_033, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
   
   • Beatriz Gaitan S. & Richard S.J. Tol & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2006. "The Hotelling’s Rule Revisited in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 213-238 Izmir University of Economics.
   • Beatriz Gaitan de Soto & Richard S.J. Tol & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2004. "The Hotelling's Rule Revisited in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers FNU-44, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004.
2. Megan Ceronsky & David Anthoff & Cameron Hepburn & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Checking The Price Tag On Catastrophe: The Social Cost Of Carbon Under Non-Linear Climate Response," Working Papers FNU-87, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2005.
   
   • Ceronsky, Megan & Anthoff, David & Hepburn, Cameron & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "Checking the Price Tag on Catastrophe: The Social Cost of Carbon Under Non-linear Climate Response," Papers WP392, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
3. Richard S.J. Tol & Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Yuan Zhou, 2005. "A Global Database of Domestic and International Tourist Numbers at National and Subnational Level," Working Papers 2005.3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
   
   • Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maren A. Lau & Richard S.J. Tol & Zhou Yuan, 2004. "A Global Database Of Domestic And International Tourist Numbers At National And Subnational Level," Working Papers FNU-54, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Exchange Rates And Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-45, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2004.
5. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
6. Christine Roeckmann, 2005. "International cooperation for sustainable fisheries in the Baltic Sea," Working Papers FNU-88, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2005.

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Citations

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Cited by:

1. Tol, Richard S. J., 2007. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
   
   • Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(25), pages 1-22.
   • Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Social Cost Of Carbon: Trends, Outliers And Catastrophes," Working Papers FNU-144, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2007.
2. Olivier Godard, 2007. "Climat et générations futures - Un examen critique du débat académique suscité par le Rapport Stern," Working Papers hal-00243059, HAL.
3. Tol, Richard S. J., 2007. "Irish Climate Change Policy for 2012: An Assessment," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2007(4-Winter), pages 104-117.
4. Fouquet, Roger, 2010. "The slow search for solutions: Lessons from historical energy transitions by sector and service," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6586-6596, November.
   
   • Roger Fouquet, 2010. "The Slow Search for Solutions: Lessons from Historical Energy Transitions by Sector and Service," Working Papers 2010-05, BC3.
5. Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Intra-union flexibility of non-ETS emission reduction obligations in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1745-1752, May.
   
   • Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "Intra-Union Flexibility of Non-ETS Emission Reduction Obligations in the European Union," Papers WP256, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
6. Jobert, Thomas & Karanfil, Fatih & Tykhonenko, Anna, 2010. "Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the EU: Legend or reality?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1364-1373, November.
7. Simon Dietz, 2009. "From efficiency to justice: utility as the informational basis of climate change strategies, and some alternatives," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 13, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
8. Briec, Walter & Peypoch, Nicolas & Ratsimbanierana, Hermann, 2011. "Productivity growth and biased technological change in hydroelectric dams," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 853-858, September.

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1. European Climate Change Programme in Wikipedia (English)

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