Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis
AbstractWe study the effects of development and climate change on infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are closely related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the timing and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduce infectious diseases even if they are exacerbated by climate change. Development can, in particular, support the needed strengthening of disease control programs in the short run and thereby increase the capacity to cope with projected increases in infectious diseases over the medium to long term. This conclusion must, however, be viewed with caution, because development, even of the sort envisioned in the underlying socio-economic scenarios, is by no means certain.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Environment and Development Economics.
Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 05 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_EDEProvider-Email:email@example.com
Other versions of this item:
- Richard S.J. Tol & Kristie L. Ebi & Gary W. Yohe, 2006. "Infectious Disease, Development, And Climate Change: A Scenario Analysis," Working Papers FNU-109, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2006.
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tol, Richard S.J., 2005.
"Emission abatement versus development as strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change: an application of FUND,"
Environment and Development Economics,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 615-629, October.
- Richard S.J. Tol, 2002. "Emission Abatement Versus Development As Strategies To Reduce Vulnerability To Climate Change: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-12, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2002.
- P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
- Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Governance matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2196, The World Bank.
- Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
- Thomas Heinzow & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Estimates Of The External And Sustainability Costs Of Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-32, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
- Richard S.J. Tol & Gary W. Yohe, 2006.
"The Weakest Link Hypothesis For Adaptive Capacity: An Empirical Test,"
Wesleyan Economics Working Papers
2006-005, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Richard S.J. Tol & Gary W. Yohe, 2006. "The Weakest Link Hypothesis For Adaptive Capacity: An Empirical Test," Working Papers FNU-97, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2006.
- Yohe, Gary W. & Tol, Richard S. J. & Anthoff, David, 2009.
"Discounting for Climate Change,"
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal,
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(24), pages 1-22.
- Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J. & Yohe, Gary W., 2009. "Discounting for Climate Change," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J. & Yohe, Gary W., 2009. "Discounting for Climate Change," Papers WP276, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- David Anthoff & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007.
"On International Equity Weights And National Decision Making On Climate Change,"
FNU-127, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2007.
- Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S.J., 2010. "On international equity weights and national decision making on climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 14-20, July.
- David Anthoff & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "On International Equity Weights and National Decision Making on Climate Change," Working Papers 2007.55, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- David Anthoff & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "On International Equity Weights and National Decision Making on Climate Change," CESifo Working Paper Series 2373, CESifo Group Munich.
- Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "On International Equity Weights and National Decision Making on Climate Change," Papers RB2010/4/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "Schelling's Conjecture on Climate and Development: A Test," Papers WP390, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Richard S. J. Tol, 2010.
"The Economic Impact of Climate Change,"
Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(s1), pages 13-37, 05.
- Dritan Osmani, . "A note on optimal transfer schemes, stable coalition for environmental protection and joint maximization assumption," Working Papers FNU-176, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.