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Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis

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  • TOL, RICHARD S.J.
  • EBI, KRISTIE L.
  • YOHE, GARY W.

Abstract

We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are closely related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the timing and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduce infectious diseases even if they are exacerbated by climate change. Development can, in particular, support the needed strengthening of disease control programs in the short run and thereby increase the capacity to cope with projected increases in infectious diseases over the medium to long term. This conclusion must, however, be viewed with caution, because development, even of the sort envisioned in the underlying socio-economic scenarios, is by no means certain.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Environment and Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 05 (October)
Pages: 687-706

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Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:12:y:2007:i:05:p:687-706_00

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  1. Tol, Richard S.J., 2005. "Emission abatement versus development as strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change: an application of FUND," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 615-629, October.
  2. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Governance matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2196, The World Bank.
  3. Richard S.J. Tol & Gary W. Yohe, 2006. "The Weakest Link Hypothesis For Adaptive Capacity: An Empirical Test," Working Papers FNU-97, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2006.
  4. Thomas Heinzow & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Estimates Of The External And Sustainability Costs Of Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-32, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
  5. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
  6. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Possible Economic Impacts of a Shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an Application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-42, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2004.
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Cited by:
  1. Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J. & Yohe, Gary W., 2009. "Discounting for Climate Change," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "Schelling's Conjecture on Climate and Development: A Test," Papers WP390, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Economic Impact of Climate Change," Papers WP255, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "On International Equity Weights and National Decision Making on Climate Change," Papers RB2010/4/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. Dritan Osmani, . "A note on optimal transfer schemes, stable coalition for environmental protection and joint maximization assumption," Working Papers FNU-176, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.

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