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Managing The Inconceivable: Participatory Assessments Of Impacts And Responses To Extreme Climate Change

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  • Ferenc L. Toth
  • Eva Hizsnyik
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    Abstract

    A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the affected stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on “Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst-case climate change” (Atlantis) has studied one such case, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and a subsequent 5-6 meter sea-level rise. Possible methods are presented for assessing the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected European regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders. Results of a comprehensive review of participatory integrated assessment methods with a view to their applicability in climate impact studies are summarized including Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of relevant earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the Atlantis project are presented. They draw on design elements of several methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sea-level rise. The selected participatory techniques and the procedure designs might well be useful in other studies assessing climate change impacts and exploring adaptation options.

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    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/waisstakeswp.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-74.

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    Length: 51 pages
    Date of creation: May 2005
    Date of revision: May 2005
    Publication status: Forthcoming, Climatic Change
    Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:74

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    Keywords: sea level rise; West Antarctic ice sheet; climate change;

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    1. Marc Poumadere & Claire Mays & Gabriela Pfeifle & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2005. "Worst Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in the Rhone Delta, France," Working Papers FNU-76, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    2. Roger E. Kasperson & Maria T. Bohn & Clark L. Goble, 2005. "Assessing The Risks Of A Future Rapid Large Sea Level Rise: A Review," Working Papers FNU-73, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    3. Alexander A. Olsthoorn & Peter E. van der Werff & Laurens M. Bouwer & Dave Huitema, 2005. "Neo-Atlantis: Dutch Responses to Five Meter Sea Level Rise," Working Papers FNU-75, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    4. Berrens, Robert P. & Bohara, Alok K. & Jenkins-Smith, Hank C. & Silva, Carol L. & Weimer, David L., 2004. "Information and effort in contingent valuation surveys: application to global climate change using national internet samples," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 331-363, March.
    5. Marie-Laure Guillerminet & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Decision Making Under Catastrophic Risk And Learning: The Case Of The Possible Collapse Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet," Working Papers FNU-79, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2005.
    6. Robert J. Nicholls & Richard S.J. Tol & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2005. "Global Estimates Of The Impact Of A Collapse Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-78, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
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