On climate change and economic growth
Abstract
The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the amount by which the climate of a given period will affect output or GDP in that period. This paper draws attention to some of the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future output. In particular, the paper looks at saving and capital accumulation. With a constant savings rate, a lower output due to climate change will lead to a proportionate reduction in investment which in turn will depress future production (capital accumulation effect). If the savings rate is flexible, forward looking agents may change their savings behavior to accommodate the impact of future climate change. Again this alters growth prospects (savings effect). In an endogenous growth context, the two effects may be exacerbated through changes in labour productivity and the rate of technical progress. Simulations using a simple climate-economy model suggest that the capital accumulation effect is important, especially if growth is endogenous, and may be larger than the direct impact of climate change. The savings effect is less pronounced and its sign is ambiguous. In most cases, the savings effect is negative, that is, faced with climate change households increase current consumption rather than saving more to compensate for future damages. The indirect effects are relatively larger for smaller direct effects; the indirect effects are also relatively larger for growth mechanisms more prevalent in richer countries. Ignoring the growth effects of climate change thus leads to a substantial underestimate of the impacts of climate change, particularly in richer economies.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resource and Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 27 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-17
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505569
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Samuel Fankhauser & Richard S.J. Tol, 2001. "On Climate Change And Economic Growth," Working Papers FNU-10, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2002.
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fankhauser, Samuel & Smith, Joel B. & Tol, Richard S. J., 1999. "Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 67-78, July.
- Funke, Michael & Strulik, Holger, 2000.
"On endogenous growth with physical capital, human capital and product variety,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 491-515, March.
- Michael Funke & Holger Strulik, 2000. "On Endogenous Growth with Physical Capital, Human Capital and Product Variety," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20004, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- William A. Masters & Margaret S. McMillan, 2000.
"Climate and Scale In Economic Growth,"
CID Working Papers
48, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Masters, William A & McMillan, Margaret S, 2001. " Climate and Scale in Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 167-86, September.
- Masters, William A. & McMillan, Margaret S., 2001. "Climate And Scale In Economic Growth," Miscellaneous Papers 11845, Agecon Search.
- Margaret S. McMillan & William A. Masters, 2000. "Climate and scale in economic growth," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Robert J. Barro, 2012.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
CEMA Working Papers
568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
- Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001.
"The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-37, July.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990.
"A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
DELTA Working Papers
90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-51, March.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Roy Darwin & Richard Tol, 2001. "Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(2), pages 113-129, June.
- Stephen C Peck & Thomas J. Teisberg, 1992. "CETA: A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 55-78.
- Tol, Richard S. J., 1994. "The damage costs of climate change: a note on tangibles and intangibles, applied to DICE," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 436-438, May.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
- Paul Romer, 1991. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hartwick, John M, 1977.
"Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-74, December.
- John Hartwick, 1976. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," Working Papers 220, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
- John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
- Richard S.J. Tol & Samuel Fankhauser & Richard G. Richels & Joel B. Smith, 2000. "How Much Damage Will Climate Change Do? Recent Estimates," Working Papers FNU-2, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2000.
Citations
RePEc Biblio mentions
As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:- > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Climate and development
- > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics
Cited by:
- David Anthoff & Robert Nicholls & Richard Tol, 2010.
"The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise,"
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 321-335, April.
- David Anthoff & Robert J. Nicholls & Edgar L.W. Morgenroth & Richard S.J. Tol, . "The Economic Impact of Substantial Sea-Level Rise," Working Papers FNU-175, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University.
- Andrea Bigano & Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2008.
"Economy-wide impacts of climate change: a joint analysis for sea level rise and tourism,"
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 765-791, October.
- Roberto Roson & Francesco Bosello & Andrea Bigano & Richard S.J. Tol, 2008. "Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate Change: A Joint Analysis for Sea Level Rise and Tourism," Working Papers 2008_06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Dietz, Simon & Asheim, Geir B., 2012.
"Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 321-335.
- Simon Dietz & Geir B. Asheim, 2011. "Climate policy under sustainable discounted utilitarianism," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 42, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
- Simon Dietz & Geir B. Asheim, 2011. "Climate Policy under Sustainable Discounted Utilitarianism," CESifo Working Paper Series 3563, CESifo Group Munich.
- David Anthoff & Robert J. Nicholls & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "Sea Level Rise And Equity Weighting," Working Papers FNU-136, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2007.
- David Anthoff & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008.
"On International Equity Weights and National Decision Making on Climate Change,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2373, CESifo Group Munich.
- Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S.J., 2010. "On international equity weights and national decision making on climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 14-20, July.
- Anthoff, David & Tol, Richard S. J., 2011. "On International Equity Weights and National Decision Making on Climate Change," Papers RB2010/4/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- David Anthoff & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "On International Equity Weights and National Decision Making on Climate Change," Working Papers 2007.55, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- David Anthoff & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "On International Equity Weights And National Decision Making On Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-127, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2007.
- Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004.
"Economy-Wide Estimates Of The Implications Of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise,"
Working Papers
FNU-38, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
- Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2007. "Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(3), pages 549-571, July.
- Roberto Roson & Francesco Bosello & Marco Lazzarin & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Working Papers 2004.96, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- P. Link & Richard Tol, 2011. "Estimation of the economic impact of temperature changes induced by a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 287-304, January.
- Kopp, Robert E. & Golub, Alexander & Keohane, Nathaniel O. & Onda, Chikara, 2012. "The influence of the specification of climate change damages on the social cost of carbon," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(13), pages 1-40.
- Richard S. J. Tol & Francisco Estrada & Carlos Gay-García, 2012. "The persistence of shocks in GDP and the estimation of the potential economic costs of climate change," Working Paper Series 4312, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
- Naeem Akram, 2012. "Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies?," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 19(2), pages 1-18, December.
- Yildirim, K. & Koyuncu, C. & Koyuncu J., 2009. "Does Temperature Affect Labor Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
- Quiroga, Sonia & Iglesias, Ana, 2007. "Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9264, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- HRITONENKO, Natali & YATSENKO, Yuri, 2011. "Sustainable growth and modernization under environmental hazars and adaptation," CORE Discussion Papers 2011025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
- Smith, Kathryn, 2009. "Saving the World but Saving Too Much? Time Preference and Productivity in Climate Policy Modelling," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47619, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:27:y:2005:i:1:p:1-17For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

