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Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley, California

Author

Listed:
  • Cindy C. Yañez

    (University of California Riverside
    University of California Irvine)

  • Francesca M. Hopkins

    (University of California Riverside)

  • William C. Porter

    (University of California Riverside)

Abstract

Weather and climate are important considerations for tourists in selecting their destinations, and climate change may impact these decisions, with implications for economic revenue in tourism-dependent locations. In the Coachella Valley, a desert region in Southern California, the warm and dry climate during winter months attracts seasonal visitors from Canada and northern US states (“snowbirds”). However, global warming may adversely impact the snowbird season and other tourist attractions through rising temperatures. We analyzed how increasing temperatures are likely to impact three key components of the tourism industry in the region: climate in the winter snowbird season, visitation at an outdoor tourist attraction, and the likelihood of extreme heat at an annual festival. We used statistically downscaled climate models to make predictions about future visitation to the region by calculating changing probabilities of extreme heat during the tourist season and local events. Our analysis predicts a shortened snowbird season, which we define as the time of year with daily maximum temperatures below a threshold of 30 °C, under two future climate scenarios and time periods. We find a nonlinear relationship between daily maximum temperatures and daily zoo visits, where visitation sharply declines after a threshold of 30 °C. Using this threshold, we predict a decrease in zoo visitation by up to 18% and a shortening of the snowbird season by up to 36% by the end of the century. We also predict an increased likelihood of extreme heat stress during the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival.

Suggested Citation

  • Cindy C. Yañez & Francesca M. Hopkins & William C. Porter, 2020. "Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley, California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 707-721, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02843-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02843-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
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    4. Stanley K. Smith & Mark House, 2006. "Snowbirds, Sunbirds, and Stayers: Seasonal Migration of Elderly Adults in Florida," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 61(5), pages 232-239.
    5. Robert J. Allen & Rainer Luptowitz, 2017. "El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Beltramo & Giovanni Peira & Alessandro Bonadonna, 2021. "Creating a Tourism Destination through Local Heritage: The Stakeholders’ Priorities in the Canavese Area (Northwest Italy)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, March.
    2. Xiaopeng Si & Zi Tang, 2024. "Assessment of low-carbon tourism development from multi-aspect analysis: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China," Papers 2402.11579, arXiv.org.

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