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Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios

Author

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  • Qun'ou Jiang

    (School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100038, China
    Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation & Desertification Combat, Beijing Forest University, Beijing 100038, China
    Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yuwei Cheng

    (School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Qiutong Jin

    (School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Xiangzheng Deng

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Yuanjing Qi

    (School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100038, China
    Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation & Desertification Combat, Beijing Forest University, Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract

Forestland dynamics can affect the ecological security of a country and even the global environment, and therefore it is of great practical significance to understand the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of forestland. Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area, this study first explored the driving mechanism of the natural environment and social economy on deforestation and afforestation using a simultaneous equation model. The results indicate that population size, topographic and geomorphologic factors, climate, and location play leading roles in influencing forestland density fluctuations. Specifically, the population size, economic development level, gross value of forestry production, climate conditions, and government policies are key influencing factors of afforestation. Deforestation is mainly influenced by agricultural population, non-agricultural economy, forestry production, forestry density, location, transportation, and climate. In addition, this study simulated the spatial distribution of land use and analyzed the spatial characteristics and variation trends of forestland area and quality under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios from 2010 to 2030 using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. The results indicate that forestland declines under the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM) climate scenario. The environment tends to be heavily damaged under this kind of scenarios, and measures should be taken in order to protect the environment. Although the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact (MESSAGE) scenario is to some extent better than the AIM scenario, destruction of the environment will still occur, and it is necessary to restrain deforestation and convert shrub land into forestland or garden land. These results can provide significant information for environmental protection, forest resource exploitation, and utilization in the areas experiencing deforestation and afforestation.

Suggested Citation

  • Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:10:p:10558-10583:d:56338
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    Cited by:

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    2. Omaid Najmuddin & Zhihui Li & Rabnawaz Khan & Weiqing Zhuang, 2022. "Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan—An Assessment of the Past and Future," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-32, October.
    3. Omaid Najmuddin & Faisal Mueen Qamer & Habib Gul & Weiqing Zhuang & Fan Zhang, 2021. "Cropland use preferences under land, water and labour constraints— implications for wheat self-sufficiency in the Kabul River basin, Afghanistan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(4), pages 955-979, August.
    4. Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Carlos Eduardo Pacheco-Angulo & Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa & Jesus Gabriel Rangel-Peraza, 2020. "Geospatial Simulation Model of Deforestation and Reforestation Using Multicriteria Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Shaikh Shamim Hasan & Xiangzheng Deng & Zhihui Li & Dongdong Chen, 2017. "Projections of Future Land Use in Bangladesh under the Background of Baseline, Ecological Protection and Economic Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Abdus Samie & Xiangzheng Deng & Siqi Jia & Dongdong Chen, 2017. "Scenario-Based Simulation on Dynamics of Land-Use-Land-Cover Change in Punjab Province, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-17, July.

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