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Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region

Author

Listed:
  • Vassiliki Varela

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, INRASTES, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia-Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Diamando Vlachogiannis

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, INRASTES, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia-Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Athanasios Sfetsos

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, INRASTES, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia-Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Stelios Karozis

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, INRASTES, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia-Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Nadia Politi

    (Environmental Research Laboratory, INRASTES, NCSR “Demokritos”, 15341 Agia-Paraskevi, Greece)

  • Frédérique Giroud

    (Département essais et recherche, CEREN/ENTENTE, 13120 Gardanne, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, France)

Abstract

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1 st May–31 st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level.

Suggested Citation

  • Vassiliki Varela & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Stelios Karozis & Nadia Politi & Frédérique Giroud, 2019. "Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:16:p:4284-:d:255775
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    Cited by:

    1. Valentina Bacciu & Maria Hatzaki & Anna Karali & Adeline Cauchy & Christos Giannakopoulos & Donatella Spano & Elodie Briche, 2021. "Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Nicolas Boccard, 2022. "On the prevalence of forest fires in Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 1043-1057, October.
    3. Chong Du & Jiashuo Chen & Tangzhe Nie & Changlei Dai, 2022. "Spatial–temporal changes in meteorological and agricultural droughts in Northeast China: change patterns, response relationships and causes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 155-173, January.
    4. Gianluigi Busico & Elisabetta Giuditta & Nerantzis Kazakis & Nicolò Colombani, 2019. "A Hybrid GIS and AHP Approach for Modelling Actual and Future Forest Fire Risk Under Climate Change Accounting Water Resources Attenuation Role," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Nadia Politi & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Nikolaos Gounaris & Vassiliki Varela, 2023. "Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Hao Dong & Han Wu & Pengfei Sun & Yunhong Ding, 2022. "Wildfire Prediction Model Based on Spatial and Temporal Characteristics: A Case Study of a Wildfire in Portugal’s Montesinho Natural Park," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    7. San Wang & Hongli Li & Shukui Niu, 2021. "Empirical Research on Climate Warming Risks for Forest Fires: A Case Study of Grade I Forest Fire Danger Zone, Sichuan Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-18, July.

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