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On the prevalence of forest fires in Spain

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  • Nicolas Boccard

    (University of Girona)

Abstract

We study the prevalence of forest fires in Spain in the long run by computing the probability that a forest tree, as opposed to shrub or bush, will be lost to fire over the course of the year. Climate change is first shown to increase the likelihood of this event. Next, we document how risk grew dramatically from 1961 up to the democratic era (c. 1980) and has since receded to less than 2 trees lost per thousand. We bring together the socioeconomic drivers identified for this trend reversal. Our finding is commensurate with the evolution of the same risk in neighboring Mediterranean countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Boccard, 2022. "On the prevalence of forest fires in Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 1043-1057, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05384-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05384-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen M. Strader, 2018. "Spatiotemporal changes in conterminous US wildfire exposure from 1940 to 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 543-565, May.
    2. Nicole Olynk Widmar & Kendra Rash & Courtney Bir & Benjamin Bir & Jinho Jung, 2022. "The anatomy of natural disasters on online media: hurricanes and wildfires," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 961-998, January.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Andrea Colantoni & Gianluca Egidi & Giovanni Quaranta & Roberto D’Alessandro & Sabato Vinci & Rosario Turco & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Sustainable Land Management, Wildfire Risk and the Role of Grazing in Mediterranean Urban-Rural Interfaces: A Regional Approach from Greece," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Thomas Curt & Thibaut Frejaville, 2018. "Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 472-488, March.
    6. Vassiliki Varela & Diamando Vlachogiannis & Athanasios Sfetsos & Stelios Karozis & Nadia Politi & Frédérique Giroud, 2019. "Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Rebecca K. Miller & Christopher B. Field & Katharine J. Mach, 2020. "Barriers and enablers for prescribed burns for wildfire management in California," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 101-109, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luciano Barcellos-Paula & Anna María Gil-Lafuente & Aline Castro-Rezende, 2023. "Algorithm Applied to SDG13: A Case Study of Ibero-American Countries," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, January.

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