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El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Author

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  • Robert J. Allen

    (University of California Riverside)

  • Rainer Luptowitz

    (University of California Riverside)

Abstract

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Allen & Rainer Luptowitz, 2017. "El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms16055
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms16055
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Beganskas & Kyle S. Young & Andrew T. Fisher & Ryan Harmon & Sacha Lozano, 2019. "Runoff Modeling of a Coastal Basin to Assess Variations in Response to Shifting Climate and Land Use: Implications for Managed Recharge," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1683-1698, March.
    2. Underwood, Emma C. & Hollander, Allan D. & Safford, Hugh D. & Kim, John B. & Srivastava, Lorie & Drapek, Ray J., 2019. "The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services in southern California," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    3. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Cindy C. Yañez & Francesca M. Hopkins & William C. Porter, 2020. "Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Coachella Valley, California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 707-721, September.
    5. Zhiwei Yong & Junnan Xiong & Zegen Wang & Weiming Cheng & Jiawei Yang & Quan Pang, 2021. "Relationship of extreme precipitation, surface air temperature, and dew point temperature across the Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-22, March.

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