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Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?

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  • Stefan Günnel
  • Karl-Heinz Tödter

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10663-008-9084-1
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirica.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (August)
    Pages: 273-292

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:36:y:2009:i:3:p:273-292

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100261

    Related research

    Keywords: Benford’s Law; Fraud detection; Regression coefficients; Standard errors; Growth and inflation forecasts; Rounding; C8; C52; C12;

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    References

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    1. De Ceuster, Marc J. K. & Dhaene, Geert & Schatteman, Tom, 1998. "On the hypothesis of psychological barriers in stock markets and Benford's Law," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 263-279, September.
    2. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2006. "How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys," Discussion Papers 06-04, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    3. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001. "Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    4. Christin Schäfer & Jörg-Peter Schräpler & Klaus-Robert Müller & Gert G. Wagner, 2005. "Automatic Identification of Faked and Fraudulent Interviews in the German SOEP," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 125(1), pages 183-193.
    5. George Judge & Laura Schechter, 2009. "Detecting Problems in Survey Data Using Benford’s Law," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(1).
    6. McCullough, B. D. & McGeary, Kerry Anne & Harrison, Teresa D., 2006. "Lessons from the JMCB Archive," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1093-1107, June.
    7. Michael Berlemann & Forrest Nelson, 2005. "Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Papers No. 10, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. David Hendry & Michael Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2007. "Viewpoint: Replication in economics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 715-733, August.
    10. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2001. "Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S37-S55.
    11. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2003. "Verifying the Solution from a Nonlinear Solver: A Case Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 873-892, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Paul Hofmarcher & Kurt Hornik, 2013. "First Significant Digits and the Credit Derivative Market During the Financial Crisis," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(2), June.

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