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UK Business Investment: Long-Run Elasticities and Short-Run Dynamics

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  • Ellis, Colin

    (Bank of England)

  • Simon Price

Abstract

From neoclassical theory output, capital stock and the user cost are cointegrated; capital and investment also (multi)cointegrate through the capital accumulation identity. An investment equation is estimated on UK data using a new capital stock series and a long series for the weighted cost of capital. Assuming CES technology, the elasticity of substitution is well-determined and below unity. Over-identifying restrictions are accepted. The long-run parameter is robust to alternative specifications, but single-equation investment relationships may obscure the dynamics. The Johansen method is over-sized, but outperforms a single equation test for excluding the capital accumulation identity from the investment equation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 73.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:73

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Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
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Keywords: investment; capital stock; identification; multicointegration;

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  1. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
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  3. Tevlin, Stacey & Whelan, Karl, 2003. " Explaining the Investment Boom of the 1990s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February.
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  6. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-26, August.
  7. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2001. "Time-Varying Risk Premia and the Cost of Capital: An Alternative Implication of the Q Theory of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Davidson, James, 1994. "Identifying Cointegrating Regressions by the Rank Condition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(1), pages 105-10, February.
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  16. Robert Chirinko & Steven M. Fazzari & Andrew P. Meyer, 2002. "That Elusive Elasticity: A Long-panel Approach to Estimating the Price Sensitivity of Business Capital," Emory Economics 0202, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
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Cited by:
  1. Smith, James, 2008. "That elusive elasticity and the ubiquitous bias: Is panel data a panacea?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 760-779, June.
  2. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Björn A. Hauksson, 2005. "Aggregate business fixed investment," Economics wp27_bjorn, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  4. Lydon, Reamonn Author-X-Name-Reamonn & Scally, John Author-X-Name-John, 2014. "Trends in Business Investment," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 76-89, January.
  5. Stephen Millard & John Power, 2004. "The effects of stock market movements on consumption and investment: does the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 236, Bank of England.

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