IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v31y1999i7p795-804.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the trend and seasonality in the consumption of alcoholic beverages in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Liam Lenten
  • Imad Moosa

Abstract

A univariate time series analysis of the consumption of beer, wine and spirits in the UK over the period 1964-1995 is presented. The analysis shows that the consumption of beer and wine exhibits stochastic seasonality while the consumption of spirits exhibits deterministic seasonality. Moreover, the three series are found to have stochastic trends. Analysis of the out-of-sample forecasting power of the various models reveals that the model with stochastic trend and seasonality is superior to other models. The results cast doubt on the validity and soundness of the practice of modelling the consumption of alcoholic beverages by assuming deterministic trend and seasonality.

Suggested Citation

  • Liam Lenten & Imad Moosa, 1999. "Modelling the trend and seasonality in the consumption of alcoholic beverages in the United Kingdom," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 795-804.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:7:p:795-804
    DOI: 10.1080/000368499323760
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368499323760
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/000368499323760?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. A. Salisu & V. N. Balasubramanyam, 1997. "Income and price elasticities of demand for alcoholic drinks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 247-251.
    2. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    3. McGuinness, Tony, 1980. "An Econometric Analysis of Total Demand for Alcoholic Beverages in the U.K., 1956-75," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 85-109, September.
    4. Harvey, Andrew & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1324-1345, November.
    5. Walsh, Brendan M, 1982. "The Demand for Alcohol in the UK: A Comment," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 439-446, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Murali Adhikari & Krishna Paudel & Laxmi Paudel & James Bukenya, 2007. "Modelling swine supply response using a structural time series approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 467-472.
    2. Murali Adhikari & Krishna Paudel & Jack Houston & James Bukenya, 2008. "Assessing the impacts of stochastic trend in crop acreage supply response model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 295-302.
    3. I. A. Moosa & J. L. Baxter, 2002. "Modelling the trend and seasonals within an AIDS model of the demand for alcoholic beverages in the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 95-106.
    4. Murali Adhikari & Krishna Paudel & Jack Houstan & James Bukenya, 2007. "Dairy supply response under stochastic trend and seasonality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 887-891.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moosa, Imad A. & Choe, Chongwoo, 1998. "Is the Korean economy export-driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 237-255, April.
    2. Jonathan Aylen & Kevin Albertson & Gina Cavan, 2014. "The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 183-197, November.
    3. Alan Carruth & Andrew Dickerson, 2003. "An asymmetric error correction model of UK consumer spending," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 619-630.
    4. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 1998. "The UK consumption function and structural instability: improving forecasting performance using a time-varying parameter approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 975-983.
    5. James Fogarty, 2010. "The Demand For Beer, Wine And Spirits: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 428-478, July.
    6. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology I," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9618, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    7. Hansen, Hermann-Josef, 1996. "The impact of interest rates on private consumption in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. E.A. Selvanathan, 1987. "Advertising and Consumption a New Approach with an Application to Alcohol," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 87-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    9. Concetta CASTIGLIONE & Ladislava GROCHOVÁ & Davide INFANTE & Janna SMIRNOVA, 2011. "The demand for beer in presence of past consumption and advertising in the Czech Republic," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 57(12), pages 589-599.
    10. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Bribery, efficiency wages and political protection," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9418, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. E.A. Selvanathan, 1987. "Data Analytic Techniques for Consumer Economics," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 87-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    12. Ulph, A., 1997. "Political institutions and the design of environmental policy in a federal system with asymmetric information," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9718, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    13. Aldrich, J., 1992. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9218, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    14. Ulph, A., 1993. "Environmental policy and international trade when governments and producers act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9318, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    15. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    16. Hansen, Hermann-Josef, 1996. "Der Einfluß der Zinsen auf den privaten Verbrauch in Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Chadha, J.S. & Schellekens, P., 1998. "Utility functions for central bankers: the not so drastic quadratic," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9818, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    18. Ulph, A., 1995. "International environmental regulation when national governments act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9518, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    19. Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2006. "On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 1-11, January.
    20. Alain Fonteneau, 1983. "Le modèle « OFCE-annuel»," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 5(1), pages 53-79.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:7:p:795-804. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.