A comparative assessment of aggregate car ownership model estimation methodologies
AbstractThis work examines the implications of advances in time series analysis on car ownership modeling in Greece. Variables include adults population ratio, GDP per capita, car occupancy, bus kilometers, inflation and unemployment. We developed and compared (a) a classical regression model estimated on raw levels, (b) an econometric model estimated on data stationarized using graphical and unit root tests and (c) an "atheoretical" ARIMA model. Although significant methodological implications were noted, all models forecast 48 to 49 private cars per 100 inhabitants by the year 2010, a development of momentous energy and environmental implications.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 52294.
Date of creation: 19 May 2006
Date of revision:
car ownership; aggregate models; regression; time series analysis; forecasting.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
- L99 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Other
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dermot Gately, 1990. "The U.S. Demand for Highway Travel and Motor Fuel," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 59-74.
- Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
- Giovanni Baiocchi & Walter Distaso, 2003. "GRETL: Econometric software for the GNU generation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 105-110.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.