IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v124y2019icp55-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aggregate road passenger travel demand in New Zealand: A seemingly unrelated regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sheng, Mingyue
  • Sharp, Basil

Abstract

Road passenger transportation, which includes private vehicles, public transport, and motorcycles, is regarded a vital link that connects people and economic activities across New Zealand. Given the fact that road passenger transport modes are considered substitutes/complements to one another, there is a strong possibility that an interrelationship exists between the travel demand functions, primarily due to the correlation between their disturbances. This research gap is addressed in this study using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, the study examines whether the error terms of the demands for the four main road passenger transport choices: petrol cars, diesel cars, buses and motorcycles, respectively, are correlated. Second, the study identifies factors that have significant impact on the demand for each available road passenger transport choice. Empirical result from the Breusch-Pagan test of independence confirms the existence of correlated error terms in the demand equations. Moreover, estimated results from the SUR model also highlight various policy implications, including: implementing a fuel tax in the short-run to reduce the travel demand by both petrol and diesel car users, subsidising public transport providers, and several opportunities to alleviate the first-/last-mile problem associated with public transit. Recommendations for further research include developing regional analysis to compare the dynamics of different cities and constructing a forecasting model for private and public transport, and motorcycles, given detailed assumptions about energy and economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng, Mingyue & Sharp, Basil, 2019. "Aggregate road passenger travel demand in New Zealand: A seemingly unrelated regression approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 55-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:124:y:2019:i:c:p:55-68
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2019.03.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856416311624
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2019.03.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1997. "Vehicle ownership to 2015: Implications for energy use and emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1121-1127, December.
    2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    3. Rentziou, Aikaterini & Gkritza, Konstantina & Souleyrette, Reginald R., 2012. "VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 487-500.
    4. Xiaokun Wang & Kara Kockelman, 2007. "Specification and estimation of a spatially and temporally autocorrelated seemingly unrelated regression model: application to crash rates in China," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 281-300, May.
    5. Marlon G. Boarnet & Sharon Sarmiento, 1998. "Can Land-use Policy Really Affect Travel Behaviour? A Study of the Link between Non-work Travel and Land-use Characteristics," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(7), pages 1155-1169, June.
    6. Santos, Georgina, 2017. "Road fuel taxes in Europe: Do they internalize road transport externalities?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 120-134.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Zolnik, Edmund J., 2018. "Effects of additional capacity on vehicle kilometers of travel in the U.S.: Evidence from National Household Travel Surveys," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Chi, Junwook, 2016. "Long- and short-run asymmetric responses of motor-vehicle travel to fuel price variations: New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 126-134.
    10. Potoglou, Dimitris & Kanaroglou, Pavlos S., 2008. "Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54.
    11. Daniel G. Chatman, 2013. "Does TOD Need the T?," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 79(1), pages 17-31, January.
    12. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    14. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    15. Christopher Zegras, 2010. "The Built Environment and Motor Vehicle Ownership and Use: Evidence from Santiago de Chile," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(8), pages 1793-1817, July.
    16. Wang, George H. K. & Skinner, David, 1984. "The impact of fare and gasoline price changes on monthly transit ridership: Empirical evidence from seven U.S. transit authorities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 29-41, February.
    17. Liddle, Brantley, 2009. "Long-Run Relationship among Transport Demand, Income, and Gasoline Price for the US," MPRA Paper 52080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Ivanov, Ventzislav, 2001. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag-Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 2685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Dermot Gately, 1990. "The U.S. Demand for Highway Travel and Motor Fuel," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 59-74.
    20. McDonald, John F. & Osuji, Clifford I., 1995. "The effect of anticipated transportation improvement on residential land values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 261-278, June.
    21. Jou, Rong-Chang & Chen, Tzu-Ying, 2014. "Factors affecting public transportation, car, and motorcycle usage," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 186-198.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dadashova, Bahar & Li, Xiao & Turner, Shawn & Koeneman, Pete, 2021. "Multivariate time series analysis of traffic congestion measures in urban areas as they relate to socioeconomic indicators," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Mattauch, Linus & Zhao, Jiaxin, 2021. "When standards have better distributional consequences than carbon taxes," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-25, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    3. Tiong, Kah Yong & Ma, Zhenliang & Palmqvist, Carl-William, 2023. "Analyzing factors contributing to real-time train arrival delays using seemingly unrelated regression models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Zhang, Qian & Liu, Xiaoxiao & Spurgeon, Sarah & Yu, Dingli, 2021. "A two-layer modelling framework for predicting passenger flow on trains: A case study of London underground trains," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 119-139.
    5. Zhao, Jiaxin & Mattauch, Linus, 2022. "When standards have better distributional consequences than carbon taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Tsemekidi Tzeiranaki, Sofia & Economidou, Marina & Bertoldi, Paolo & Thiel, Christian & Fontaras, Georgios & Clementi, Enrico Luca & Franco De Los Rios, Camilo, 2023. "“The impact of energy efficiency and decarbonisation policies on the European road transport sector”," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Ahmed, Kashif & Kamihigashi, Takashi & Matsuo, Miwa, 2023. "Positive fuel price elasticities of expressway traffic flows: Insights for policymakers and management strategists," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 99-114.
    8. Dean Hyslop & Trinh Le & David Maré & Lynn Riggs & Nic Watson, 2023. "Domestic transport charges: Estimation of transport-related elasticities," Working Papers 23_10, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & Roberto Escalante Semerena, 2014. "Demanda de gasolina en la zona metropolitana del Valle de México: análisis empírico de la reducción del subsidio," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    2. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    3. Wilton Bernardino & João B. Amaral & Nelson L. Paes & Raydonal Ospina & José L. Távora, 2022. "A statistical investigation of a stock valuation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-25, August.
    4. Bagnai, Alberto & Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander, 2015. "Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 41-50.
    5. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non‐Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783, September.
    6. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Xiaoquan Wang & Chunfu Shao & Chaoying Yin & Chengxiang Zhuge & Wenjun Li, 2018. "Application of Bayesian Multilevel Models Using Small and Medium Size City in China: The Case of Changchun," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Martin T. Bohl & Alexander Pütz & Pierre L. Siklos & Christoph Sulewski, 2018. "Information Transmission under Increasing Political Tension – Evidence for the Berlin Produce Exchange 1887-1896," CQE Working Papers 7618, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    9. Jafari Samimi, Ahmad & Ghaderi, Saman & Sanginabadi, Bahram, 2012. "The Effects of Openness and Globalization on Inflation: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach," MPRA Paper 52407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia, 2013. "The causal relationship between energy resources and economic growth in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 793-801.
    11. Solomon P. Nathaniel & Festus V. Bekun, 2020. "Electricity Consumption, Urbanization and Economic Growth in Nigeria: New Insights from Combined Cointegration amidst Structural Breaks," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/013, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    12. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2000. "The Causal Relationship between Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 251-261, November.
    13. Fatih Kaplan & Ayşe E. Ünal, 2020. "Industrial Production Index - Crude Oil Price Nexus: Russia, Kazakhstan And Azerbaijan," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(227), pages 119-142, October –.
    14. Ma, Tao & Zhou, Zhou & Antoniou, Constantinos, 2018. "Dynamic factor model for network traffic state forecast," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 281-317.
    15. Muhammad Ahad, 2016. "Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis exist in Pakistan? A Freshlook from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(2), pages 94-111, February.
    16. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
    17. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
    18. Ayesha Siddiqui & Mohd Shamim & Mohammad Asif & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2022. "Are Stock Markets among BRICS Members Integrated? A Regime Shift-Based Co-Integration Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-25, April.
    19. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Fakhri J. Hasanov & Carlo A. Bollino & Ceyhun Mahmudlu, 2017. "Modeling of Electricity Demand for Azerbaijan: Time-Varying Coefficient Cointegration Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-12, November.
    20. Halil Alt ntas & Melike Kum, 2013. "Multivariate Granger Causality between Electricity Generation, Exports, Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 41-51.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:124:y:2019:i:c:p:55-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.