Causal Relations via Econometrics
AbstractApplied econometric work takes a superficial approach to causality. Understanding economic affairs, making good policy decisions, and progress in the economic discipline depend on our ability to infer causal relations from data. We review the dominant approaches to causality in econometrics, and suggest why they fail to give good results. We feel the problem cannot be solved by traditional tools, and requires some out-of-the-box thinking. Potentially promising approaches to solutions are discussed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10128.
Date of creation: 31 May 2008
Date of revision:
causality; regression; Granger Causality; Exogeneity; Cowles Commission; Hendry Methodology; Natural Experiments;
Other versions of this item:
- C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2008-09-05 (Econometrics)
- NEP-HPE-2008-09-05 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
- Baba, Yoshihisa & Hendry, David F & Starr, Ross M, 1992. "The Demand for M1 in the U.S.A., 1960-1988," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 25-61, January.
- Hoover,Kevin D., 2001.
"Causality in Macroeconomics,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, October.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001.
"Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
- Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Joshua Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," NBER Working Papers 8456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hendry, David F., 2000. "Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?: Essays in Econometric Methodology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293545.
- Falk, Armin & Fehr, Ernst, 2003. "Why labour market experiments?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-406, August.
- Nicholas Barberis & Richard Thaler, 2002.
"A Survey of Behavioral Finance,"
NBER Working Papers
9222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leamer, Edward E, 1983.
"Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
- Banerjee, Abhijit V & Duflo, Esther, 2003.
" Inequality and Growth: What Can the Data Say?,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 267-99, September.
- John Faust & Charles H. Whiteman, 1997.
"General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory- inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: a translation and crit,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
576, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
- Gary Burtless, 1995. "The Case for Randomized Field Trials in Economic and Policy Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 63-84, Spring.
- repec:pri:indrel:834 is not listed on IDEAS
- Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther, 2006.
"The Economic Lives of the Poor,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hoover, Kevin D., 2004. "Lost Causes," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 149-164, June.
- Ashley, Richard, 1998. "A new technique for postsample model selection and validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 647-665, May.
- Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
- David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1989. "An econometric analysis of UK money demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 355, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gnidchenko, Andrey, 2011.
"Моделирование Технологических И Институциональных Эффектов В Макроэкономическом Прогнозировании
[Technologica," MPRA Paper 35484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2011.
- Zahid Asghar, 2011. "A Structural Approach for Testing Causality," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 1-12, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.