La performance di modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un'applicazione con dati a diversa frequenza
AbstractIn recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling nonlinearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of this work is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of some of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French Franc (FF/$), the German Mark (DM/$) and the Japanese Yen (Y/$). We compare the relative performance of some nonlinear models and contrast them with their linear counterparts. Although we find evidence of some forecasting gains from nonlinear models, the results are sensitive to the forecast horizon and to the metric adopted to measure the forecasting accuracy. The use of data at different frequencies allows us to evaluate the possible effects of temporal aggregation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia in its series Working Paper CRENoS with number 200014.
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
non-linearity; asymmetry; forecasting accuracy; aggregation; exchange rates;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weiss, Andrew A., 1984. "Systematic sampling and temporal aggregation in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 271-281, December.
- Krager, Horst & Kugler, Peter, 1993. "Non-linearities in foreign exchange markets: a different perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 195-208, April.
- Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1989.
"An empirical assessment of non-linearities in models of exchange rate determination,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
367, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 603-19, May.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999.
"A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr.
- Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 464, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992.
"A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December.
- Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "Monetary Models of Dollar/Yen/Euro Nominal Exchange Rates: Dead or Undead?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F655-59, November.
- Dixon, Huw D, 1999. "Controversy: Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F652-54, November.
- Clements, M.P. & Smith, J., 1998. "Non-Linearities in Exchange Rates," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 504, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Are Fundamentals Important?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F673-91, November.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- David Peel & Alan Speight, 1994. "Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 391-417, June.
- Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- R. Naylor, 2001. "Firm profits and the number of firms under unionised oligopoly," Working Paper CRENoS 200109, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
- R. Naylor, 2001. "Industry profits and market size under bilateral oligopoly," Working Paper CRENoS 200108, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antonello Pau).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.