Modelling Individual Patient Hospital Expenditure for General Practice Budgets
AbstractThe English NHS has introduced a system of budgets for general practices covering hospital expenditure for the patients on their lists. We model individual expenditure using diagnostic information from previous hospital spells, plus a large set of attributed variables measuring population, general practice, and local hospital characteristics. We show that, despite the large proportion of zero expenditures and the heavy right tail of expenditures, estimating models of untransformed expenditure via OLS yields better predictions at practice level than one or two part models using OLS with transformed expenditure or Generalised Linear Models. We describe a procedure for setting budgets for general practices which reduces the problem of the lags in the available data. We examine the distinction between need and nonneed variables and the incentive implications of allowing past numbers of hospital encounters to determine practice budgets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Health Economics, University of York in its series Working Papers with number 073cherp.
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Propper, Carol & Croxson, Bronwyn & Shearer, Arran, 2002.
"Waiting times for hospital admissions: the impact of GP fundholding,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 227-252, March.
- Croxson, Bronwyn & Propper, Carol & Shearer, Arran, 2000. "Waiting Times for Hospital Admissions: the Impact of GP Fundholding," CEPR Discussion Papers 2489, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Manning, Willard G., 1998. "The logged dependent variable, heteroscedasticity, and the retransformation problem," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-295, June.
- Roy Carr-Hill & Geoffrey Hardman & Stephen Martin & Stuart Peacock & Trevor Sheldon & Peter Smith, 1994. "A formula for distributing NHS revenues based on small area use of hospital beds," Working Papers 022cheop, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
- Mullahy, John, 1998. "Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-281, June.
- Blough, David K. & Madden, Carolyn W. & Hornbrook, Mark C., 1999. "Modeling risk using generalized linear models," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 153-171, April.
- Peter C. Smith & Nigel Rice & Roy Carr-Hill, 2001. "Capitation funding in the public sector," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 217-257.
- Mark Dusheiko & Hugh Gravelle & Rowena Jacobs & Peter Smith, 2003.
"The Effects of Budgets on Doctors Behaviour: Evidence from a Natural Experiment,"
The Centre for Market and Public Organisation
03/064, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
- Mark Dusheiko & Hugh Gravelle & Rowena Jacobs & Peter C Smith, . "The Effect of Budgets on Doctor Behaviour: Evidence From A Natural Experiment," Discussion Papers 03/04, Department of Economics, University of York.
- J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006.
"The Log of Gravity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
- Croxson, B. & Propper, C. & Perkins, A., 2001. "Do doctors respond to financial incentives? UK family doctors and the GP fundholder scheme," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 375-398, February.
- Mark Dusheiko & Hugh Gravelle & Rowena Jacobs, 2004. "The effect of practice budgets on patient waiting times: allowing for selection bias," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(10), pages 941-958.
- Willard G. Manning & John Mullahy, 1999.
"Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not to Transform?,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manning, Willard G. & Mullahy, John, 2001. "Estimating log models: to transform or not to transform?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 461-494, July.
- Mark Dusheiko & Maria Goddard & Hugh Gravelle & Rowena Jacobs, 2008. "Explaining trends in concentration of healthcare commissioning in the English NHS," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(8), pages 907-926.
- Buntin, Melinda Beeuwkes & Zaslavsky, Alan M., 2004. "Too much ado about two-part models and transformation?: Comparing methods of modeling Medicare expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 525-542, May.
- Samuel L Brilleman & Hugh Gravelle & Sandra Hollinghurst & Sarah Purdy & Chris Salisbury & Frank Windmeijer, 2011. "Keep it Simple? Predicting Primary Health Care Costs with Measures of Morbidity and Multimorbidity," Working Papers 072cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frances Sharp).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.