Multiple Testing Techniques in Growth Econometrics
AbstractThis paper discusses two longstanding questions in growth econometrics which involve multiple hypothesis testing. In cross sectional GDP growth regressions many variables are simultaneously tested for significance. Similarly, when investigating pairwise convergence of output for $n$ countries, $n(n-1)/2$ tests are performed. We propose to control the false discovery rate (FDR) so as not to erroneously declare variables significant in these multiple testing situations only because of the large number of tests performed. Doing so, we provide a simple new way to robustly select variables in economic growth models. We find that few other variables beyond the initial GDP level are needed to explain growth. We also show that convergence of per capita output using a time series definition with the necessary condition of no unit root in the log per-capita output gap of two economies does not appear to hold
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 17843.
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Growth Empirics; Multiple Testing; Convergence; Bootstrap;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-10-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2009-10-17 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FDG-2009-10-17 (Financial Development & Growth)
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