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Bootstrapping the HEGY Seasonal Unit Root Tests

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Author Info
Robert Taylor
Peter Burridge

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Abstract

This paper proposes bootstrap versions of the seasonal unit root tests of, inter alia, Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990,Journal of Econometrics 55, 305-328)[HEGY]. We report a simulation study of the properties of both the conventional and bootstrapped seasonal unit root tests when applied to series having higher-order serial correlation and/or periodic heteroscedasticity, both of which are known to severely distort the significance level of the conventional tests. Our results demonstrate that the bootstrap provides good approximations to the statistics' null distributions. Moreover, the bootstrap corrects the adverse effects of data-dependent lag selection seen in the conventional augmented HEGY tests. The bootstrapped tests have comparable power to (infeasible) exactly significance-level-corrected lag-augmented HEGY tests, and their use is recommended

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 125.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:125

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Related research
Keywords: Seasonal unit roots; bootstrap tests; higher-order serial correlation; periodic heteroscedasticity; data-based lag selection;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1997. "Bootstrap Tests of Nonnested Linear Regression Models," Working Papers 954, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2001. "Bootstrap Tests: How Many Bootstraps?," Working Papers 1036, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ghysels, E. & Hall, A. & Lee, H.S., 1995. "On Periodic Structures and Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots," Cahiers de recherche 9518, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    Other versions:
  4. Smith, R.J. & Taylor, A.M.R., 1999. "Regression-Based Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Discussion Papers 99-15, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    Other versions:
  5. Donald W. K. Andrews & Moshe Buchinsky, 2000. "A Three-Step Method for Choosing the Number of Bootstrap Repetitions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 23-52, January.
  6. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Burridge, Peter & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2001. "On regression-based tests for seasonal unit roots in the presence of periodic heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 91-117, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Psaradakis, Zacharias, 2000. "Bootstrap tests for unit roots in seasonal autoregressive models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 389-395, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Burridge, Peter & Taylor, A M Robert, 2001. "On the Properties of Regression-Based Tests for Seasonal Unit Roots in the Presence of Higher-Order Serial Correlation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 374-79, July.
  12. Horowitz, Joel L. & Savin, N. E., 2000. "Empirically relevant critical values for hypothesis tests: A bootstrap approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 375-389, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Russell Davidson & James MacKinnon, 2002. "Fast Double Bootstrap Tests Of Nonnested Linear Regression Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 419-429. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Bootstrapping Spurious Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1330, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  15. Richard Smith & Robert Taylor, . "Additional Critical Values and Asymptotic Representations for Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Discussion Papers 95/43, Department of Economics, University of York.
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  16. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter Burridge & Frida Gjorstrup & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2004. "Robust inference on seasonal unit roots via a bootstrap applied to OECD macroeconomic series," City University Economics Discussion Papers 04/08, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lacroix, R., 2008. "Analyse conjoncturelle de données brutes et estimation de cycles Partie 1 : estimation et tests," Documents de Travail 209, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  3. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & Irma Hindrayanto, 2006. "Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-101/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Deckers, Thomas & Hanck, Christoph, 2009. "Multiple Testing Techniques in Growth Econometrics," MPRA Paper 17843, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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