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Modelling Turkish Migration to Germany

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  • Sule Akkoyunlu
  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

This study develops a time series model of Turkish migration to Germany for the period 1963-2004 using the cointegration technique. A single cointegrating relation between the migration flow variable and the relative income ratio between Germany and Turkey, the unemployment rates in Germany and Turkey, and the trade variable, that captures intensity of bilateral economic cooperation, is found. By including the trade variable in the empirical migration function we investigate whether trade and migration are complements or substitutes: a question on which the theoretical literature does not provide a definite answer. Our results support the former view.

Suggested Citation

  • Sule Akkoyunlu & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "Modelling Turkish Migration to Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 595, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp595
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    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.44399.de/dp595.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1993. "International migration and international trade," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 851-887, Elsevier.
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    5. Schiff, Maurice, 1994. "How trade, aid, and remittances affect international migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1376, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kadir KARAGÖZ, 2016. "Migration – trade nexus revisited: Empirical evidence from Turkish emigrants in OECD countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 127-142, Winter.
    2. Kadir KARAGÖZ, 2016. "Migration – trade nexus revisited: Empirical evidence from Turkish emigrants in OECD countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 127-142, Winter.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; trade; economic development; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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