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Modelling Turkish Migration to Germany

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  • Sule Akkoyunlu
  • Boriss Siliverstovs

Abstract

This study develops a time series model of Turkish migration to Germany for the period 1963-2004 using the cointegration technique. A single cointegrating relation between the migration flow variable and the relative income ratio between Germany and Turkey, the unemployment rates in Germany and Turkey, and the trade variable, that captures intensity of bilateral economic cooperation, is found. By including the trade variable in the empirical migration function we investigate whether trade and migration are complements or substitutes: a question on which the theoretical literature does not provide a definite answer. Our results support the former view.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.44399.de/dp595.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 595.

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Length: 16 p.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp595

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Related research

Keywords: Migration; trade; economic development; cointegration;

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  1. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
  2. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Razin, A. & Sadka, E., 1992. "International Migration and International Trade," Papers 11-92, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  4. Anthony J. Venables, 1997. "Trade Liberalisation and Factor Mobility: An Overview," CEP Discussion Papers dp0352, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  6. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  7. Schiff, Maurice, 1996. "South-North migration and trade : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1696, The World Bank.
  8. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Clem Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Document 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  10. Schiff, Maurice, 1994. "How trade, aid, and remittances affect international migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1376, The World Bank.
  11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  12. Panagariya, Arvind & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Factor mobility, trade and welfare : A North-South analysis with economies of scale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 229-245, October.
  13. Markusen, James R., 1983. "Factor movements and commodity trade as complements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 341-356, May.
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