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Modelling Turkish Migration to Germany

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Author Info
Sule Akkoyunlu
Boriss Siliverstovs

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Abstract

This study develops a time series model of Turkish migration to Germany for the period 1963-2004 using the cointegration technique. A single cointegrating relation between the migration flow variable and the relative income ratio between Germany and Turkey, the unemployment rates in Germany and Turkey, and the trade variable, that captures intensity of bilateral economic cooperation, is found. By including the trade variable in the empirical migration function we investigate whether trade and migration are complements or substitutes: a question on which the theoretical literature does not provide a definite answer. Our results support the former view.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.44399.de/dp595.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 595.

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Length: 16 p.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp595

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Related research
Keywords: Migration; trade; economic development; cointegration;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. A.M. Lejour & R.A. de Mooij & C.H. Capel, 2004. "Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU," CPB Documents 56, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Markusen, James R., 1983. "Factor movements and commodity trade as complements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 341-356, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Panagariya, Arvind & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Factor mobility, trade and welfare : A North-South analysis with economies of scale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 229-245, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1997. "International Migration and International Trade," NBER Working Papers 4230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Schiff, Maurice, 1996. "South-North migration and trade : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1696, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Schiff, Maurice, 1994. "How trade, aid, and remittances affect international migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1376, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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