Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns: Consumer Confidence and the dotcom bubble

Contents:

Author Info

  • Leger, Lawrence
  • Leone, Vitor

Abstract

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a 'bubble' period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W61-4PRYG89-1/1/ef5c0cf0415b7334264ad7f47f1f1ae6
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 228-244

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:228-244

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
  2. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  3. Gary Chamberlain & Michael Rothschild, 1984. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 0996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jansen, W. Jos & Nahuis, Niek J., 2003. "The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 89-98, April.
  5. Priestley, Richard, 1996. "The arbitrage pricing theory, macroeconomic and financial factors, and expectations generating processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 869-890, June.
  6. Beenstock, Michael & Chan, Kam-Fai, 1988. "Economic Forces in the London Stock Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
  7. Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
  8. Shukla, Ravi & Trzcinka, Charles, 1990. " Sequential Tests of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: A Comparison of Principal Components and Maximum Likelihood Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1541-64, December.
  9. Fraser, Patricia, 1996. "UK Excess Share Returns: Firm Size and Volatility," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 71-84, February.
  10. Dhrymes, Phoebus J. & Friend, Irwin & Gultekin, N. Bulent & Gultekin, Mustafa N., 1985. "An empirical examination of the implications of arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 73-99, March.
  11. Chan, K. C. & Chen, Nai-fu & Hsieh, David A., 1985. "An exploratory investigation of the firm size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 451-471, September.
  12. Beenstock, Michael & Chan, Kam-Fai, 1986. "Testing the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(2), pages 121-41, May.
  13. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia, 2006. "Asset Pricing Models and Financial Market Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 1001-1040.
  14. Booth, James R. & Booth, Lena Chua, 2003. "Is presidential cycle in security returns merely a reflection of business conditions?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 131-159.
  15. Priestley, Richard, 1997. "Seasonality, Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1742-50, November.
  16. Séverine CAUCHIE & Martin HOESLI & Dušan ISAKOV, 2003. "The Determinants of Stock Returns in a Small Open Economy," FAME Research Paper Series rp54, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  17. Mei, Jianping, 1993. "Explaining the Cross-Section of Returns via a Multi-Factor APT Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(03), pages 331-345, September.
  18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  19. Chen, Nai-fu, 1983. " Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1393-1414, December.
  20. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. " The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
  21. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
  22. Dhrymes, Phoebus J, et al, 1985. " New Tests of the APT and Their Implications," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 659-74, July.
  23. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  24. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. " A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-91, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Morris, John J. & Alam, Pervaiz, 2012. "Value relevance and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 243-255.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:228-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.