Changes in the risk structure of stock returns: Consumer Confidence and the dotcom bubble
AbstractChanges in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a 'bubble' period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170
Other versions of this item:
- Lawrence A. Leger & Vitor Leone, 2007. "Changes in the risk structure of stock returns. Consumer Confidence and the Dotcom Bubble," Discussion Paper Series 2007_15, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2007.
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Gary Chamberlain & Michael Rothschild, 1984.
"Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
0996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-304, September.
- Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1982. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Scholarly Articles 3230355, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jansen, W. Jos & Nahuis, Niek J., 2003.
"The stock market and consumer confidence: European evidence,"
Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 89-98, April.
- W. Jos Jansen & Niek J. Nahuis, 2002. "The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence: European Evidence," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
- Priestley, Richard, 1996. "The arbitrage pricing theory, macroeconomic and financial factors, and expectations generating processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 869-890, June.
- Beenstock, Michael & Chan, Kam-Fai, 1988. "Economic Forces in the London Stock Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
- Shukla, Ravi & Trzcinka, Charles, 1990. " Sequential Tests of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: A Comparison of Principal Components and Maximum Likelihood Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1541-64, December.
- Fraser, Patricia, 1996. "UK Excess Share Returns: Firm Size and Volatility," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 71-84, February.
- Dhrymes, Phoebus J. & Friend, Irwin & Gultekin, N. Bulent & Gultekin, Mustafa N., 1985. "An empirical examination of the implications of arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 73-99, March.
- Chan, K. C. & Chen, Nai-fu & Hsieh, David A., 1985. "An exploratory investigation of the firm size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 451-471, September.
- Beenstock, Michael & Chan, Kam-Fai, 1986. "Testing the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(2), pages 121-41, May.
- Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia, 2006. "Asset Pricing Models and Financial Market Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 1001-1040.
- Booth, James R. & Booth, Lena Chua, 2003. "Is presidential cycle in security returns merely a reflection of business conditions?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 131-159.
- Priestley, Richard, 1997.
"Seasonality, Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1742-50, November.
- Séverine CAUCHIE & Martin HOESLI & Dušan ISAKOV, 2003.
"The Determinants of Stock Returns in a Small Open Economy,"
FAME Research Paper Series
rp54, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Cauchie, Severine & Hoesli, Martin & Isakov, Dusan, 2004. "The determinants of stock returns in a small open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 167-185.
- Mei, Jianping, 1993. "Explaining the Cross-Section of Returns via a Multi-Factor APT Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(03), pages 331-345, September.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Chen, Nai-fu, 1983. " Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1393-1414, December.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996.
" The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
- Dhrymes, Phoebus J, et al, 1985. " New Tests of the APT and Their Implications," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 659-74, July.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
- Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. " A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-91, September.
- Morris, John J. & Alam, Pervaiz, 2012. "Value relevance and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 243-255.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.