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Changes in the risk structure of stock returns. Consumer Confidence and the Dotcom Bubble

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Abstract

Changes in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a ‘bubble’ period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence A. Leger & Vitor Leone, 2007. "Changes in the risk structure of stock returns. Consumer Confidence and the Dotcom Bubble," Discussion Paper Series 2007_15, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2007_15
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    File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/ec/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/Dotcom_consumerconfidence.pdf
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    2. Vitor Leone, 2011. "From Property Companies to Real Estate Investment Trusts: The Impact of Economic and Property Factors on UK Listed Property Returns," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 16(1), pages 19-36, March.
    3. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmada, 2016. "Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stock market efficiency," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 16(1), pages 43-61, March.
    4. Morris, John J. & Alam, Pervaiz, 2012. "Value relevance and the dot-com bubble of the 1990s," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 243-255.
    5. Zhang, Li & Liu, Chengyi & Zhang, Jinjin & Ke, Jinjun & Yuan, Jiayue, 2023. "Party leadership, corporate governance and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Vitor Leone, 2010. "From Property Companies to Real Estate Investment Trusts: The Impact of Economic and Property Factors in the UK Commercial Property Returns," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2010/4, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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