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Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football

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Author Info

  • J. James Reade

    ()
    (University of Birmingham)

  • Sachiko Akie

    (Akita International University)

Abstract

Corruption is hidden action aimed at in uencing the outcome of an event away from its competitive outcome. It is likely common in all walks of life yet its hidden nature makes it dicult to detect, while its distortionary in uence on resource allocation ensures the importance of trying to detect it both practically and economically. This paper further develops methods to detect corrupt activity using data from 63 bookmakers covering over 9,000 international football matches since 2004, in particular assessing a claim made in early 2013 by Europol that the outcomes of almost 300 international matches since 2009 were xed. We explore the divergence between two kinds of forecasts of match outcomes: those by bookmakers, and those constructed by econometric models. We argue that in the absence of corrupt activity to x outcomes these two forecasts should be indistinguishable as they are based on the same information sets, and hence any divergence between the two may be indicative of corrupt activity to x matches. In the absence of corroborating evidence we cannot declare any evidence procured in our manner as conclusive regarding the existence or otherwise of corruption, but nonetheless we argue that is it indicative. We conclude that there is mild evidence regarding potentially corrupt outcomes, and we also point towards yet more advanced strategies for its detection.

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File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2013-005.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2013-005.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-005

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Keywords: Corruption; Forecasting Models; Information and Knowledgeobis Distance;

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References

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  1. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 2092, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
  4. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Exchange vs Dealers: A High-Frequency Analysis of In-Play Betting Prices," Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham 11-19, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  5. Preston, Ian & Szymanski, Stefan, 2000. "Racial Discrimination in English Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(4), pages 342-63, September.
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  7. Olmo, Jose & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2011. "Detecting the presence of insider trading via structural break tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2820-2828, November.
  8. Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 279-283, May.
  9. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
  10. Stefani Ray & Pollard Richard, 2007. "Football Rating Systems for Top-Level Competition: A Critical Survey," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, July.
  11. Leitner, Christoph & Zeileis, Achim & Hornik, Kurt, 2010. "Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EUROƂ 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 471-481, July.
  12. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
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