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Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EUROÂ 2008

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  • Leitner, Christoph
  • Zeileis, Achim
  • Hornik, Kurt

Abstract

Different methods for assessing the abilities of participants in a sports tournament, and their corresponding winning probabilities for the tournament, are embedded in a common framework and their predictive performances compared. First, ratings of abilities (such as the Elo rating) are complemented with a simulation approach which yields winning probabilities for the full tournament. Second, tournament winning probabilities are extracted from bookmakers' odds using a consensus model, and the underlying abilities of the competitors are then derived by an "inverse" application of the tournament simulation. Both techniques are employed for forecasting the results of the European football championship 2008 (UEFA EURO 2008), for which the consensus model based on bookmakers' odds outperforms methods based on both the Elo rating and the FIFA/Coca Cola World rating. Moreover, the bookmaker consensus model correctly predicts that the final will be played by the teams from Germany and Spain (with a probability of about 20.5%), while showing that both finalists profit from being drawn in groups with relatively weak competitors.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 26 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 471-481

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:471-481

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords: Sports forecasting EURO 2008 Bookmakers odds Elo rating Abilities;

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Cited by:
  1. J. James Reade & Sachiko Akie, 2013. "Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football," Working Papers 2013-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.

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