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Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice

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Author Info

  • Wolfers, Justin

    (U of Pennsylvania)

  • Zitzewitz, Eric

    (Stanford U)

Abstract

Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets," "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stanford University, Graduate School of Business in its series Research Papers with number 1927.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:stabus:1927

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References

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  1. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 12200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin, 2010. "Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love or Misperceptions?," IZA Discussion Papers 4884, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5562, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wolfers, Justin, 2006. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 5466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Research Papers 1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  6. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2007. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence From Prediction Markets and Close Elections," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(2), pages 807-829, 05.
  7. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
  8. repec:reg:rpubli:82 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 10359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Knight, Brian, 2006. "Are policy platforms capitalized into equity prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(4-5), pages 751-773, May.
  11. Smith, Vernon L, 1985. "Experimental Economics: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 264-72, March.
  12. Berg, Joyce & Forsythe, Robert & Nelson, Forrest & Rietz, Thomas, 2008. "Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research," Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, Elsevier.
  13. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-53, May.
  14. Colin F. Camerer, 1998. "Can Asset Markets Be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 457-482, June.
  15. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
  16. Slemrod, Joel & Greimel, Timothy, 1999. "Did Steve Forbes scare the US municipal bond market?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 81-96, October.
  17. repec:reg:rpubli:430 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. "Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 225-250, 04.
  19. repec:reg:rpubli:259 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  21. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election," Working paper 430, Regulation2point0.
  22. Colin Camerer, 1998. "Can asset markets be manipulated? A field experiment with racetrack betting," Natural Field Experiments 00222, The Field Experiments Website.
  23. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
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  1. Why did Reddit get the wrong guy? (Or: the Wisdom of Crowds vs. the Madness of Mobs)
    by Noah Smith in Noahpinion on 2013-04-21 20:28:00
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Cited by:
  1. C.J.M. Kool & S. Rosenkranz & M. Middeldorp, 2007. "Listening without understanding: Central Bank transparency, financial markets and the crowding out of private information," Working Papers 07-19, Utrecht School of Economics.

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