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Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections

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  • Erik Snowberg
  • Justin Wolfers
  • Eric Zitzewitz

Abstract

Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous changes in expectations about the likely winner during Election Day. Analyzing high frequency financial fluctuations following the release of flawed exit poll data on Election Day 2004, and then during the vote count, we find that markets anticipated higher equity prices, interest rates and oil prices and a stronger dollar under a Bush presidency than under Kerry. A similar Republican-Democrat differential was also observed for the 2000 Bush-Gore contest. Prediction market based analyses of all Presidential elections since 1880 also reveal a similar pattern of partisan impacts, suggesting that electing a Republican President raises equity valuations by 2 3 percent, and that since Reagan, Republican Presidents have tended to raise bond yields.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12073.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Publication status: published as Snowberg, Erik, Justin Wolfers and Erik Zitzewitz. “Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122, 2 (May 2007): 807-829.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12073

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  1. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864, August.
  4. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
  5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  6. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  7. Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
  8. Cutler, David M, 1988. "Tax Reform and the Stock Market: An Asset Price Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1107-17, December.
  9. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
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