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An Economic Analysis of Voting in Sweden

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  • Jordahl, Henrik

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical model of rational retrospective voting, which is tested empirically on pooled cross-sectional and panel data from the Swedish Election Studies between 1985 and 1994 supplemented with time series on inflation and unemployment. Compared with the cross-sectional estimates, the panel estimates indicate a relatively greater impact of macroeconomic variables on the individual vote. The principal finding is, however, that microeconomic variables influence the vote about as much as macroeconomic variables do. In consequence, self-interest appears to be an important part of an adequate understanding of economic voting in Sweden. Regarding the determination of election outcomes, macroeconomic variables have been more influential.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2001:18.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 11 Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Public Choice, 2006, pages 251-265.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2001_018

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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
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Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Keywords: Elections; voting behavior; pocketbook voting; self-int4erest; public interest;

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References

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  1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
  2. Alesina, Alberto & Spear, Stephen E., 1988. "An overlapping generations model of electoral competition," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 359-379, December.
  3. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
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  5. Frey, Bruno S, 1979. " Politometrics of Government Behavior in a Democracy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 81(2), pages 308-22.
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  8. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Harrington, Joseph Jr., 1992. "The role of party reputation in the formation of policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 107-121, October.
  11. Johansson, Eva, 2003. "Intergovernmental grants as a tactical instrument: empirical evidence from Swedish municipalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 883-915, May.
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  14. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
  15. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Positive Theory of Discretionary Policy, the Cost of Democratic Government and the Benefits of a Constitution," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(3), pages 367-88, July.
  16. John Ferejohn, 1986. "Incumbent performance and electoral control," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 5-25, January.
  17. Johansson, Eva, 1999. "Intergovernmental Grants as a Tactical Instrument: Some Empirical Evidence from Swedish Municipalities," Working Paper Series 1999:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  18. Jonung, Lars & Wadensjo, Eskil, 1979. " The Effect of Unemployment, Inflation and Real Income Growth on Government Popularity in Sweden," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 81(2), pages 343-53.
  19. Lindbeck, Assar, 1976. "Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 1-19, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Elinder, Mikael, 2010. "Local economies and general elections: The influence of municipal and regional economic conditions on voting in Sweden 1985-2002," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-292, June.
  2. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper Series 42-07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jul 2007.
  3. Ronny Freier, 2011. "Incumbency as the Major Advantage: The Electoral Advantage for Parties of Incumbent Mayors," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1147, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Elinder, Mikael & Jordahl, Henrik & Poutvaara, Panu, 2008. "Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting," IZA Discussion Papers 3763, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Elinder, Mikael, 2006. "Local Economies and General Elections," Working Paper Series 2007:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  6. Alex Ferreira & Sérgio Naruhiko Sakurai, 2009. "Personal Charisma or the Economy? Macroeconomic Indicators of Presidential Approval Ratings in Brazil," Working Papers 09_09, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
  7. Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Anatomy of Voting Behaviour and Attitudes During Post-Communist Transition Czech Republic 1990-98," CEPR Discussion Papers 3801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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