Elinder, Mikael () (Department of Economics) Jordahl , Henrik () (Research Institute of Industrial Economics) Poutvaara, Panu () (University of Helsinki and CEBR)
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We present and test a theory of prospective and retrospective pocketbook voting. Focusing on two large reforms in Sweden, we establish a causal chain from policies to sizeable individual gains and losses and then to voting. The Social Democrats proposed budget cuts affecting parents with young children before the 1994 election, but made generous promises to the same group before the 1998 election. Since parents with older children were largely unaffected we use a difference-in-differences strategy for identification. We find clear evidence of prospective pocketbook voting. Voters respond to campaign promises but not to the later implementation of the reforms.
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Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number
2008:7.
Length: 31 pages Date of creation: 14 Oct 2008 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2008_007
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00 Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78 Email: Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/ More information through EDIRC
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
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