Government Transfers and Political Support
AbstractWe estimate the impact of a large anti-poverty program â€“ the Uruguayan PANES â€“ on political support for the government that implemented it. The program mainly consisted of a monthly cash transfer for a period of roughly two and half years. Using the discontinuity in program assignment based on a pre-treatment score, we find that beneficiary households are 21 to 28 percentage points more likely to favor the current government (relative to the previous government). Impacts on political support are larger among poorer households and for those near the center of the political spectrum, consistent with the probabilistic voting model in political economy. Effects persist after the cash transfer program ends. We estimate that the annual cost of increasing government political support by 1 percentage point is roughly 0.9% of annual government social expenditures.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series with number qt9n42t9sw.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2009
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Conditional cash transfers; redistributive politics; voting; regression discontinuity;
Other versions of this item:
- Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," CEP Discussion Papers dp0912, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Manacorda, Marco & Miguel, Edward & Vigorito, Andrea, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," CEPR Discussion Papers 7163, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2009. "Government Transfers and Political Support," NBER Working Papers 14702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
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