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Still the Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election

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Jeffrey S. DeSimone
Courtney LaFountain

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Abstract

Given President Bush's popularity among relatively poor rural residents and lack thereof among wealthier urban dwellers in the 2004 presidential election, analysts have suggested that voters contradicted their economic self-interests. We investigate whether this conventional wisdom implied an absence of economic voting. Using exit poll data, we estimate whether a change in previous four-year financial status affected the propensity to vote for Bush. The main econometric concern is that underlying preferences for Bush might dictate financial status change responses. Beyond income and several other demographic variables, therefore, the regressions hold constant indicators for state and congressional district, religious affiliation, political philosophy and party, and Iraq war support. Even further controlling for approval of Bush's job performance, economic voting is statistically and quantitatively significant. Effects are asymmetric, with status worsening hurting Bush more than status improvement helped, and persist even among subgroups that provided particularly strong or weak support for Bush.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13549.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13549

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H0 - Public Economics - - General

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  1. Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," NBER Working Papers 12053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Daniel Eisenberg & Jonathan Ketcham, 2004. "Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections: Who Blames Whom for What," Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1285-1285. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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