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Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues

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  • Kiewiet, D. Roderick

Abstract

This study explores the hypothesis that voting in response to economic problems is policy-oriented: voters concerned about unemployment ore predicted to give greater support to Democratic candidates, while those concerned about inflation are predicted to vote more Republican. In light of evidence from previous research, this study investigates the electoral effects of inflation and unemployment as (1) problems directly experienced by the individual, and (2) problems deemed serious for the nation as a whole. Support is strongest for the unemployment side of the hypothesis. Voters personally affected by unemployment gave a modest boost to Democratic candidates in virtually every election. And in years of high unemployment the large percentage of voters who fell it was a serious national problem voted heavily Democratic as well. This study concludes by discussing the important implications these findings have for our understanding of how economic conditions influence voting behavior in American national elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiewiet, D. Roderick, 1981. "Policy-Oriented Voting in Response to Economic Issues," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 448-459, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:75:y:1981:i:02:p:448-459_17
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee Dutter, 1985. "An application of the multicandidate calculus of voting to the 1972 and 1976 German federal elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 405-424, January.
    2. Kelly Sims & Soyoung Oh, 2023. "Job creation and deep decarbonization," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 765-778.
    3. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-180, July.
    4. Paul R. Blackley & Edward M. Shepard, 1994. "A Statistical Analysis of the Effect of State-Level Economic Conditions On the 1992 Presidential Election," Public Finance Review, , vol. 22(3), pages 366-382, July.
    5. Jeffrey S. DeSimone & Courtney LaFountain, 2007. "Still the Economy, Stupid: Economic Voting in the 2004 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 13549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2008. "Are Voters Sensitive to Terrorism?: Direct Evidence from the Israeli Electorate," Working Papers 477-1, RAND Corporation.
    7. Dills, Angela K. & Hernández-Julián, Rey, 2014. "Religiosity and state welfare," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 37-51.
    8. Berger, Helge & Neugart, Michael, 2011. "Labor courts, nomination bias, and unemployment in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 659-673.
    9. Eric Dubois & François Facchini & Martial Foucault & Abel François, 2009. "Un modèle explicatif du vote FNSEA aux élections des représentants des chefs d'exploitation aux Chambres d'Agriculture départementales (1995-2001)," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00800701, HAL.
    10. Antoine Auberger, 2020. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981- 2017)," Working Papers hal-02501677, HAL.
    11. Fırat Gündem, 2023. "Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Nowak, Anna, 2018. "You failed! Government satisfaction and party preferences facing Islamist terrorism," CIW Discussion Papers 6/2018, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    13. Ferrante, Livio & Reito, Francesco & Spagano, Salvatore & Torrisi, Gianpiero, 2021. "Shall we follow the money? Anti-mafia policies and electoral competition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1110-1130.
    14. Till Weber, 2007. "Campaign Effects and Second-Order Cycles," European Union Politics, , vol. 8(4), pages 509-536, December.

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