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Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

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Author Info
Hibbs Jr., Douglas A. (Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University)

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Abstract

A simple "Bread and Peace" model shows that aggregate votes for President in postwar elections were determined entirely by weighted-average growth of real disposable personal income per capita during the incumbent party's term and the cumulative numbers of American military personnel killed in action as a result of U.S. interventions in the Korean and Vietnamese civil wars. The model is subjected to robustness tests against twenty-two variations in functional form inspired by the extensive literature on presidential voting. Not one of these variations adds value to the Bread and Peace model or significantly perturbs its coefficients.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Göteborg University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 20.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 24 Jan 2000
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Publication status: Published in Public Choice, 2000, pages 149-180.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0020

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
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Related research
Keywords: US presidential elections; presidential voting; elections and economics; elections and disposable income;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Wallerstein, 2004. "Behavioral Economics and Political Economy," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 37-48. [Downloadable!]
  2. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David A. Walker, 2006. "Predicting presidential election results," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 483-490, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Voting and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers in Economics 144, Göteborg University, Department of Economics, revised 05 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sinha, Pankaj & Bansal, Ashok, 2008. "Hierarchical Bayes prediction for the 2008 US Presidential election," MPRA Paper 10470, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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