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Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results

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  • Irem Batool

    ()

  • Gernot Sieg

    ()

Abstract

Aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post-war Germany were determined by the weighted-average growth of real per capita disposable income. Each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately two percentage points of votes in Germany. No other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model. However, attrition of power reduced the vote share in election years 1961, 1994 and 1998. --

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 141 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 151-165

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:141:y:2009:i:1:p:151-165

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

Related research

Keywords: Bread and Peace model; Elections; Vote share; Real per capita disposable income growth; E6; H11; P16;

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References

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  1. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
  2. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sieg, Gernot, 2009. "Grandfather rights in the market for airport slots," Economics Department Working Paper Series 4, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  4. Stephen E. Haynes & Joe A. Stone, 1994. "Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict A Bush Landslide In 1992?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 123-130, 04.
  5. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
  6. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Working Papers in Economics 20, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  7. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753, April.
  8. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2008. "The political cost of taxation: new evidence from German popularity ratings," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-06, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  9. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  10. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
  11. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Voting and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers in Economics 144, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 05 Oct 2004.
  12. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
  13. Douglas Hibbs, 2008. "Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US presidential election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 1-10, October.
  14. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gernot Sieg & Irem Batool, 2012. "Pakistan, Politics and Political Business Cycles," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 153-166.
  2. Soeren Enkelmann, 2013. "Government Popularity and the Economy First Evidence from German Micro Data," Working Paper Series in Economics 274, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  3. Mario Mechtel & Niklas Potrafke, 2011. "Electoral Cycles in Active Labor Market Policies," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-39, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  4. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Is German domestic social policy politically controversial?," Munich Reprints in Economics 19274, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  5. Rothbauer, Julia & Sieg, Gernot, 2010. "Quality standards for passenger trains: Political majorities and environmental costs," Economics Department Working Paper Series 8, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  6. Marc Gürtler & Gernot Sieg, 2010. "Crunch Time: A Policy to Avoid the 'Announcement Effect' when Terminating a Subsidy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 25-36, 02.
  7. Sieg, Gernot & Stegemann, Ulrike, 2009. "Strategic debt management within the stability and growth pact," Economics Department Working Paper Series 5, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  8. Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: Empirical evidence from 1951-2006," Munich Reprints in Economics 19272, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  9. Sören Enkelmann, 2014. "Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 999-1017, May.
  10. Sieg, Gernot, 2010. "Grandfather rights in the market for airport slots," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-37, January.

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