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Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence

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  • Geys, Benny
  • Vermeir, Jan

Abstract

Previous research has established that taxation may entail significant electoral costs to politicians. This literature, however, focuses exclusively on the effect of the tax burden. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that both the level of the tax burden and the change in the tax structure affect the US president’s approval ratings (over the period 1959-2006). Our results support this proposition. Specifically, we find a negative impact from the levels of the tax burden and the deficit as well as from changes in the tax structure on presidential approval ratings. -- Bisherige Untersuchungen haben gezeigt, dass Besteuerung mit erheblichen Kosten für Politiker bei Wahlen einhergeht. Die entsprechende Literatur fokussiert allerdings ausschließlich den Effekt der Steuerbelastung. Im vorliegenden Artikel testen wir die Hypothese, dass sowohl das Niveau der Steuerbelastung als auch Veränderungen der Steuerstruktur den Grad der Zustimmung für den US-Präsidenten beeinflussen (im Zeitraum 1959-2006). Die empirischen Ergebnisse stützen diese Behauptung. Es wird gezeigt, dass neben dem Defizit sowohl das Niveau der Steuerbelastung als auch Änderungen in der Steuerstruktur negative Auswirkungen auf den Zustimmungsgrad für den Präsidenten haben.

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Paper provided by Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) in its series Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance with number SP II 2007-09.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbmpg:spii200709

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Keywords: Policy; tax structure turbulence; presidential approval ratings; popularity function;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benny Geys, 2013. "Election Cycles in MPs' Outside Interests? The UK House of Commons, 2005–2010," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, Political Studies Association, vol. 61(2), pages 462-472, 06.
  2. De Witte, Kristof & Geys, Benny, 2010. "Evaluating efficient public good provision: Theory and evidence from a generalised conditional efficiency model for public libraries," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2010-14, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  3. Geys, Benny, 2010. "War casualties and US presidential popularity: A comparison of the Korean, Vietnam and Iraq war," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2010-05, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  4. Benny Geys & Federico Revelli, 2011. "Economic and political foundations of local tax structures: an empirical investigation of the tax mix of Flemish municipalities," Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, Pion Ltd, London, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 29(3), pages 410-427, June.
  5. Werck, Kristien & Heyndels, Bruno & Geys, Benny, 2007. "The impact of central places on spatial spending patterns: evidence from Flemish local government cultural expenditures," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2007-10, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  6. Soeren Enkelmann & Michael Berlemann, 2013. "The Economic Determinants of U.S. Presidential Approval - A Survey," Working Paper Series in Economics, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics 272, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  7. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2008. "The political cost of taxation: new evidence from German popularity ratings," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-06, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  8. Geys, Benny, 2009. "Wars, presidents and popularity: The political cost(s) of war re-examined," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2009-11, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).

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