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Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

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  • Douglas Hibbs

Abstract

A simple ``Bread and Peace'' model shows that aggregate votes forPresident in postwar elections were determined entirely byweighted-average growth of real disposable personal income percapita during the incumbent party's term and the cumulativenumbers of American military personnel killed in action as aresult of U.S. intervention in the Korean and Vietnamese civilwars. The model is subjected to robustness tests against twenty-two variations in functional form inspired by the extensiveliterature on presidential voting. Not one of these variationsadds value to the Bread and Peace model or significantly perturbsits coefficients. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1005292312412
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 104 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 149-180

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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:104:y:2000:i:1:p:149-180

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Blog mentions

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  1. Påvirker samfundsøkonomien amerikanske midtvejsvalg?
    by Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard in Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard on 2009-11-25 15:09:00
  2. Påvirker samfundsøkonomien amerikanske midtvejsvalg?
    by Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard in Punditokraterne on 2009-11-25 17:17:53
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Cited by:
  1. Batool, Irem & Sieg, Gernot, 2009. "Bread, peace and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Economics Department Working Paper Series 3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  2. Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2012. "Too close to call: Growth and the cost of ruling in US presidential elections, with an application to the 2012 election," MPRA Paper 42464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Leo Kahane, 2009. "It’s the economy, and then some: modeling the presidential vote with state panel data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 343-356, June.
  4. Sinha, Pankaj & Bansal, Ashok, 2008. "Hierarchical Bayes prediction for the 2008 US Presidential election," MPRA Paper 10470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Lawrence Kenny & Babak Lotfinia, 2005. "Evidence on the importance of spatial voting models in presidential nominations and elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 439-462, June.
  6. Batool, Irem & Sieg, Gernot, 2009. "Pakistan, politics and political business cycles," Economics Department Working Paper Series 7, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  7. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Voting and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers in Economics 144, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 05 Oct 2004.
  8. Bruno S. Frey & Lasse Steiner, 2012. "Political Economy: Success or Failure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 6(3), September.
  9. Souren Soumbatiants & Henry Chappell & Eric Johnson, 2006. "Using state polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 207-223, April.
  10. Michael Wallerstein, 2004. "Behavioral Economics and Political Economy," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 37-48.
  11. Dennis, Christopher & Medoff, Marshall H. & Magnera, Michael, 2008. "Constituents' economic interests and senator support for spending limitations," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2443-2453, December.
  12. Hibbs, Douglas A., 2007. "The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election," MPRA Paper 15910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Hibbs, Douglas A., 2010. "The 2010 Midterm Election for the US House of Representatives," MPRA Paper 25918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2007. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2007-09, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  15. Sinha, Pankaj & Thomas, Ashley Rose & Ranjan, Varun, 2012. "Forecasting 2012 United States Presidential election using Factor Analysis, Logit and Probit Models," MPRA Paper 42062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Sinha, Pankaj & Sharma, Aastha & Singh, Harsh Vardhan, 2012. "Prediction for the 2012 United States Presidential Election using Multiple Regression Model," MPRA Paper 41486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2008. "The political cost of taxation: new evidence from German popularity ratings," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-06, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).

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