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Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

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Author Info
Douglas Hibbs

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Abstract

A simple ``Bread and Peace'' model shows that aggregate votes forPresident in postwar elections were determined entirely byweighted-average growth of real disposable personal income percapita during the incumbent party's term and the cumulativenumbers of American military personnel killed in action as aresult of U.S. intervention in the Korean and Vietnamese civilwars. The model is subjected to robustness tests against twenty-two variations in functional form inspired by the extensiveliterature on presidential voting. Not one of these variationsadds value to the Bread and Peace model or significantly perturbsits coefficients. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 104 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 149-180
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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:104:y:2000:i:1:p:149-180

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References listed on IDEAS
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  4. Edin, Per-Anders & Zetterberg, Johnny, 1992. "Interindustry Wage Differentials: Evidence from Sweden and a Comparison with the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1341-49, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Meltzer, Allan H & Vellrath, Marc, 1975. "The Effects of Economic Policies on Votes for the Presidency: Some Evidence from Recent Elections," Journal of Law & Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(3), pages 781-98, December.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Wallerstein, 2004. "Behavioral Economics and Political Economy," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 30, pages 37-48. [Downloadable!]
  2. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David A. Walker, 2006. "Predicting presidential election results," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 483-490, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hibbs Jr., Douglas A., 2004. "Voting and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers in Economics 144, Göteborg University, Department of Economics, revised 05 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sinha, Pankaj & Bansal, Ashok, 2008. "Hierarchical Bayes prediction for the 2008 US Presidential election," MPRA Paper 10470, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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