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Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany

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  • Dopke, Jorg
  • Pierdzioch, Christian

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 925-943

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Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:22:y:2006:i:4:p:925-943

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505544

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References

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  1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1987. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini, 1990. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," NBER Working Papers 3478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1997. " Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 179-97, April.
  4. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  5. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135.
  6. Roubini, Nouriel & Alesina, Alberto, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Scholarly Articles 4553025, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
  8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  9. Gartner, Manfred, 1994. "Democracy, elections, and macroeconomic policy: Two decades of progress," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 85-109, May.
  10. Riley, William B. & Luksetich, William A., 1980. "The Market Prefers Republicans: Myth or Reality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 541-560, September.
  11. Umstead, David A, 1977. "Forecasting Stock Market Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 427-41, May.
  12. Gartner, Manfred, 1994. "The quest for political cycles in OECD economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 427-440, October.
  13. Jan-Peter Olters, 2001. "Modeling Politics with Economics tools," IMF Working Papers 01/10, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Hibbs, Douglas Jr., 1992. "Partisan theory after fifteen years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 361-373, October.
  15. Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
  16. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
  17. Jef Vuchelen, 2003. "Electoral systems and the effects of political events on the stock market: The Belgian case," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 85-102, March.
  18. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  19. Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2003. "Partisan cycles and pre-electoral uncertainty," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 01/03, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  20. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  21. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  22. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
  23. Kirchgassner, Gebhard, 1985. "Rationality, causality, and the relation between economic conditions and the popularity of parties : An empirical investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1971-1982," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 243-268.
  24. Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
  25. Stephen R Foerster & John J Schmitz, 1997. "The Transmission of U.S. Election Cycles to International Stock Returns," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(1), pages 1-27, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Salaber, Julie, 2013. "Religion and returns in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 149-160.
  2. Gabriel Rodríguez & Alfredo Vargas, 2012. "Impacto de expectativas políticas en los retornos del Índice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima," Revista Economía, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 35(70), pages 190-223.
  3. David Le Bris, 2012. "Stock Returns, Governments and Market Foresight in France, 1871-2008," Working Papers CEB 12-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Ray Sturm, 2013. "Economic policy and the presidential election cycle in stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 200-215, April.
  5. K. Arin & Alexander Molchanov & Otto Reich, 2013. "Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 23-38, August.
  6. Ángel Pardo Tornero & María Dolores Furió Ortega, 2010. "Politics and elections at the Spanish stock exchange," Working Papers. Serie EC 2010-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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