Washington meets Wall Street: A closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle
AbstractWe show that average excess returns during the last two years of the presidential cycle are significantly higher than during the first two years: 9.8 percent over the period 1948 2008. This pattern in returns cannot be explained by business-cycle variables capturing time-varying risk premia, differences in risk levels, or by consumer and investor sentiment. In this paper, we formally test the presidential election cycle (PEC) hypothesis as the alternative explanation found in the literature for explaining the presidential cycle anomaly. PEC states that incumbent parties and presidents have an incentive to manipulate the economy (via budget expansions and taxes) to remain in power. We formulate eight empirically testable propositions relating to the fiscal, monetary, tax, unexpected inflation and political implications of the PEC hypothesis. We do not find statistically significant evidence confirming the PEC hypothesis as a plausible explanation for the presidential cycle effect. The existence of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets thus remains a puzzle that cannot be easily explained by politicians employing their economic influence to remain in power. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2010/06.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: House of Finance, Grüneburgplatz 1, HPF H5, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/
More information through EDIRC
Political Economy; Market Efficiency; Anomalies; Calendar Effects;
Other versions of this item:
- Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Rijsbergen, David R. & van der Sluis, Pieter Jelle & Vrugt, Evert B., 2014. "Washington meets Wall Street: A closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 50-69.
- Roman Kraussl & Andre Lucas & David R. Rijsbergen & Pieter Jelle van der Sluis & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Washington Meets Wall Street: A Closer Examination of the Presidential Cylce Puzzle," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-4, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
- R. Kraeussl & A. Lucas & D. Rijsbergen & P.J. van der Sluis & E. Vrugt, 2008. "Washington meets Wall Street: A Closer Examination of the Presidential Cycle Puzzle," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-101/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chappell, Henry W, Jr & Keech, William R, 1986. "Party Differences in Macroeconomic Policies and Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 71-74, May.
- Alberto Alesina & Jeffrey Sachs, 1986.
"Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984,"
NBER Working Papers
1940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alesina, Alberto & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 63-82, February.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
- Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990.
"Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
- Hodrick, Robert J, 1992.
"Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
- Tom Doan, . "OLSHODRICK: RATS procedure to compute Hodrick standard errors," Statistical Software Components RTS00147, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 1986. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policies and Outcomes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 66-70, May.
- Stephen R Foerster & John J Schmitz, 1997. "The Transmission of U.S. Election Cycles to International Stock Returns," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(1), pages 1-27, March.
- Sachs, Jeffrey & Alesina, Alberto, 1988. "Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984," Scholarly Articles 4553026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
- Sean D. Campbell & Canlin Li, 2004. "Alternative estimates of the presidential premium," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fair, Ray C, 1978.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
- Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004.
"Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, 08.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Booth, James R. & Booth, Lena Chua, 2003. "Is presidential cycle in security returns merely a reflection of business conditions?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 131-159.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
- Wong, Wing-Keung & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(11), pages 3267-3277.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Campbell, John, 1991.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1989. "An Integrated Test for Electoral Cycles in the U.S. Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 426-34, August.
- Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
- Fair, Ray C, 1982. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 322-25, May.
- MacRae, C Duncan, 1977. "A Political Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(2), pages 239-63, April.
- Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.