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Stock market volatiltity around national elections

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  • Bialkowski, Jedrzej
  • Gottschalk, Katrin
  • Wisniewski, Tomasz

Abstract

This paper investigates a sample of 27 OECD countries to test whether national elections induce higher stock market volatility. It is found that the country-specific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an Election Day, which shows that investors are surprised by the election outcome. Several factors, such as a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change in the political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a coalition with a majority of seats in parliament significantly contribute to the magnitude of the election shock. Our findings have important implications for the optimal strategies of risk-averse stock market investors and participants of the option markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 302.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision: Nov 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:302

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Keywords: Political risk; National elections; Stock market volatility;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. K. Arin & Alexander Molchanov & Otto Reich, 2013. "Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 23-38, August.
  2. Krieger, Kevin & Mauck, Nathan & Vasquez, Joseph, 2014. "Comparing U.S. and European Market Volatility Responses to Interest Rate Policy Announcements," MPRA Paper 52959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
  4. Badunenko, Oleg & Fritsch, Michael & Stephan, Andreas, 2006. "Allocative efficiency measurement revisited: do we really need input prices?," Freiberg Working Papers 2006,04, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2006. "Political Orientation of Government and Stock Market Returns," Working Paper Series 2006,9, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  6. John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.
  7. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2013. "What Type of Policy Uncertainty Matters for Business?," Discussion papers 13076, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  8. Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
  9. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou, 2012. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: The Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 67, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
  11. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
  12. Galema, Rients & Plantinga, Auke & Scholtens, Bert, 2008. "The stocks at stake: Return and risk in socially responsible investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2646-2654, December.
  13. Kozhan, Roman, 2006. "Multiple Priors And No-Transaction Region," Working Paper Series 2006,4, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.

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