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Stock market volatility around national elections

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  • Bialkowski, Jedrzej
  • Gottschalk, Katrin
  • Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr

Abstract

This paper investigates a sample of 27 OECD countries to test whether national elections induce higher stock market volatility. It is found that the country-specific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an Election Day, which shows that investors are surprised by the election outcome. Several factors, such as a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change in the political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a coalition with a majority of seats in parliament significantly contribute to the magnitude of the election shock. Our findings have important implications for the optimal strategies of risk-averse stock market investors and participants of the option markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 1941-1953

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:9:p:1941-1953

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Badunenko, Oleg & Fritsch, Michael & Stephan, Andreas, 2006. "Allocative efficiency measurement revisited: do we really need input prices?," Freiberg Working Papers 2006,04, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. John Goodell & Richard Bodey, 2012. "Price-earnings changes during US presidential election cycles: voter uncertainty and other determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 633-650, March.
  3. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
  4. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou, 2012. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: The Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 67, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Kozhan, Roman, 2006. "Multiple Priors And No-Transaction Region," Working Paper Series 2006,4, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  6. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2006. "Political Orientation of Government and Stock Market Returns," Working Paper Series 2006,9, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  7. Galema, Rients & Plantinga, Auke & Scholtens, Bert, 2008. "The stocks at stake: Return and risk in socially responsible investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2646-2654, December.

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