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Government Popularity and the Economy First Evidence from German Micro Data

Author

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  • Soeren Enkelmann

    (Department of Economics, Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany)

Abstract

This is one of the first studies to estimate a popularity function at the micro-level. Using German micro-level data (GGSS/ALLBUS) for the years 1991, 1992, 1998, and 2008, we show that a positive assessment of the economy significantly improves government popularity while negative evaluations decrease satisfaction with the government. Voters take the (current and expected) national and personal economic situation into account. We find no evidence for a grievance asymmetry, i.e. voters punish the government for a bad economy but also reward them in good times. Finally, we show that popularity functions are only very crude proxies for vote functions, with the latter being mostly driven by party identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Soeren Enkelmann, 2013. "Government Popularity and the Economy First Evidence from German Micro Data," Working Paper Series in Economics 274, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lue:wpaper:274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Martin Paldam, 2008. "Vote and Popularity Functions," Springer Books, in: Readings in Public Choice and Constitutional Political Economy, chapter 29, pages 533-550, Springer.
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    9. Kirchgassner, Gebhard, 1991. "On the relation between voting intention and the perception of the general economic situation : An empirical analysis for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1972-1986," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 497-526, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hugo Oriola & Matthieu Picault, 2023. "Opportunistic Political Central Bank Coverage: Does media coverage of ECB's Monetary Policy Impacts German Political Parties' Popularity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-30, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    vote function; popularity function; micro data; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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