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The Economic Determinants of U.S. Presidential Approval - A Survey

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  • Soeren Enkelmann

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany)

  • Michael Berlemann

    ()
    (Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

Even after four decades of research it remains unclear, whether presidential popularity depends on the state of the economy. While about half of all studies for the United States find a significant effect of unemployment and inflation on presidential popularity, the others do not. Additional economic issues have rarely been studied. In this survey article we study the likely causes for the inconclusive findings. While various factors have an influence on the results, especially the choice of the sample period is of crucial importance. While in the very long run we find unemployment, inflation and the budget deficit to have a robust effect on presidential approval, this holds not true for shorter sub-periods. This result might indicate that the popularity function is instable over time. However, the findings might also be taken as an indication that the most often employed linear estimation approach is inadequate. Further research on these issues is necessary.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics with number 272.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lue:wpaper:272

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Web page: http://leuphana.de/institute/ivwl.html

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Keywords: presidential popularity; approval; unemployment; inflation;

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Cited by:
  1. Enkelmann, Sören & Berlemann, Michael & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2013. "Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79836, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Soeren & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2012. "Unraveling the complexity of US presidential approval: A multi-dimensional semi-parametric approach," HWWI Research Papers 118, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  3. Soeren Enkelmann, 2013. "Government Popularity and the Economy First Evidence from German Micro Data," Working Paper Series in Economics 274, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  4. Sören Enkelmann, 2014. "Government popularity and the economy: first evidence from German microdata," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 999-1017, May.

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