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Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach

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  • Enkelmann, Sören
  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben

Abstract

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible non-linear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation, and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of non-parametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables. --

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79836.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79836

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  7. K. Peren Arin & Michael Berlemann & Faik Koray & Torben Kuhlenkasper, 2013. "Nonlinear Growth Effects Of Taxation: A Semi‐Parametric Approach Using Average Marginal Tax Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 883-899, 08.
  8. Soeren Enkelmann & Michael Berlemann, 2013. "The Economic Determinants of U.S. Presidential Approval - A Survey," Working Paper Series in Economics 272, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  9. Leslie E. Papke & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1993. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(k) Plan Participation Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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