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Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach

Author

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  • Michael Berlemann
  • Sören Enkelmann
  • Torben Kuhlenkasper

Abstract

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible non-linear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation, and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of non-parametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.
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Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann & Sören Enkelmann & Torben Kuhlenkasper, 2015. "Unraveling the Relationship Between Presidential Approval and the Economy: A Multidimensional Semiparametric Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 468-486, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:30:y:2015:i:3:p:468-486
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    Cited by:

    1. Elina Tuominen, 2024. "Top-end inequality and growth: empirical exploration of nonlinearities and the time dimension," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(2), pages 311-331, June.
    2. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    3. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    4. Dong Shin Kim & Seung-Hyun Lee, 2024. "Board political connections and financial fraud: The case of business groups in South Korea," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 2119-2153, December.
    5. Hannu Tanninen & Matti Tuomala & Elina Tuominen, 2019. "Income Inequality, Redistributive Preferences and the Extent of Redistribution: An Empirical Application of Optimal Tax Approach," LIS Working papers 743, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    6. Kerim Peren Arin & Eberhard Feess & Torben Kuhlenkasper & Otto F. M. Reich, 2019. "Negotiating with Terrorists: The Costs of Compliance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 305-317, July.
    7. Anbarci, Nejat & Arin, K. Peren & Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Zenker, Christina, 2018. "Revisiting loss aversion: Evidence from professional tennis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2024. "Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States," Working Papers 202427, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Yuvana Jaichand & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "Presidential Approval Ratings and Stock Market Performance in Latin America," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 72(4), September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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