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Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Enkelmann, Sören
  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben

Abstract

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible non-linear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation, and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of non-parametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

Suggested Citation

  • Enkelmann, Sören & Berlemann, Michael & Kuhlenkasper, Torben, 2013. "Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79836, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79836
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.
    11. K. Peren Arin & Michael Berlemann & Faik Koray & Torben Kuhlenkasper, 2013. "Nonlinear Growth Effects Of Taxation: A Semi‐Parametric Approach Using Average Marginal Tax Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 883-899, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    2. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2016-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy

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