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Presidential popularity: what matters most, macroeconomics or scandals?

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Author Info
D. J. Smyth
S. W. Taylor
Abstract

What accounts for the widely divergent impact of political scandal on the Nixon and Clinton administrations? This article argues that the extent to which an administration suffers in the public's eye from a scandal depends on the economic conditions prevailing at the time. Using Gallup poll data, it estimates a quadratic social preference function for each administration and finds that the impact of Watergate on Nixon's decline in the polls has been over-emphasized and that the Lewinsky affair had no impact on Clinton's popularity. The role of the economy contributed more to political success or failure in both cases than did scandal.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 10 (2003)
Issue (Month): 9 (July)
Pages: 585-588
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:9:p:585-588

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  1. Susan W. Taylor & David J. Smyth & Pami Dua, 1999. "Estimating the public's social preference function between inflation and unemployment using survey data: The survey research center versus Gallup," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 361-372. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Smyth, David J & Dua, Pami & Taylor, Susan Washburn, 1994. " Voters and Macroeconomics: Are They Forward Looking or Backward Looking?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 78(3-4), pages 283-93, March.
  3. Smyth, David J & Dua, Pami & Taylor, Susan Washburn, 1995. "Structural Change in the Relationship between Presidential Popularity and Inflation and Unemployment: The Nixon and Ford Presidencies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(9), pages 305-07, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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