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Unraveling the complexity of US presidential approval: A multi-dimensional semi-parametric approach

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  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Enkelmann, Soeren
  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben

Abstract

In this paper we show that findings of an apparently instable popularity function of U.S. presidents, as reported in the previous literature, are likely the consequence of the common use of linear estimation techniques. Employing Penalized Spline Smoothing in the context of Additive Mixed Models we allow for a-priori unspecified non-linear effects of possible economic determinants of presidential popularity. We find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation and government consumption on presidential approval and present empirical evidence in favor of the hypothesis of the existence of interaction effects between the economic variables. Additionally we give supporting evidence for the existence of honeymoon and nostalgia effects as well as general decline of support over time. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) in its series HWWI Research Papers with number 118.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:118

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Keywords: presidential popularity; approval; penalized splines; mixed models;

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References

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  1. Soeren Enkelmann & Michael Berlemann, 2013. "The Economic Determinants of U.S. Presidential Approval - A Survey," Working Paper Series in Economics 272, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
  2. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, April.
  3. Wong, Chi-ming & Kohn, Robert, 1996. "A Bayesian approach to additive semiparametric regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, October.
  4. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Hillmann, Katja & Hohenleitner, Ingrid, 2012. "Impact of benefit sanctions on unemployment outflow: Evidence from German survey data," HWWI Research Papers 129, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  2. Philipp an de Meulen & Christian Bredemeier, 2012. "A Political Winner’s Curse: Why Preventive Policies Pass Parliament so Narrowly," Ruhr Economic Papers 0336, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).

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