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Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?

Author

Listed:
  • Bahram Adrangi

    (R.B Pamplin School of Business Administration, University of Portland, Portland, OR 97203, USA)

  • Joseph Macri

    (Department of Economics, Macquarie University, North Ryde, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia)

Abstract

We seek to determine whether a United States President’s job approval rating is influenced by the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinear model that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate, unemployment, inflation, and mortgage rates. Second, we employ probit and logit regression models to calculate the probabilities of U.S. Presidents’ approval ratings to the Misery Index. The results suggest that Layton’s model does not perform well when adopted for the United States. Conversely, the probit and logit regression analysis suggests that the Misery Index significantly impacts the probability of the approval of U.S. Presidents’ performances.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2019. "Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:22-:d:202478
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Yuvana Jaichand & Christian Pierdzioch & Reneé van Eyden, 2023. "Realized Stock-Market Volatility of the United States and the Presidential Approval Rating," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-27, July.
    2. Martin Ravallion, 2022. "Macroeconomic Covariates of Real Household Incomes in America," Working Papers gueconwpa~22-22-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    3. Chia-Lin Chang, 2020. "Editorial for Applied Econometrics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-5, August.
    4. Das, Anupam & Brown, Leanora & Mcfarlane, Adian, 2023. "Economic Misery and Remittances in Jamaica," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 48(2), pages 33-52, June.
    5. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Nianyong Wang & Muhammad Haroon Shah & Kishwar Ali & Shah Abbas & Sami Ullah, 2019. "Financial Structure, Misery Index, and Economic Growth: Time Series Empirics from Pakistan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.

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